Last year was the first year for Canada’s international student caps, and many institutions braced for softened student demand as a result. However, our previous analysis of 2024 study permit data showed that new student mobility toward Canadian institutions fell more sharply than IRCC had initially estimated when calculating cap allocations.
For 2025, the study permit caps were revised to include a further 10% reduction and an integration of post-graduate study levels in the caps. Based on these changes and 2024 data, we previously forecasted that IRCC would approve around 200,000 new study permit applications this year.1 At the time, we did not account for the inclusion of study permit extensions into the cap, but we pointed out that integration of extensions had the potential to significantly diminish new student volumes beyond our forecast. Now, new student visa figures for January to April 20252 proves that this was the case, with far fewer new study permit approvals likely in 2025.
Join us as we detail the impact of Canada’s student caps on student demand by taking a closer look at trends across each stage of the study permit process.3 We’ll provide our updated projections for 2025, compare current trends to IRCC study permit targets, and detail what Canadian institutions can do to continue to attract the best students from all around the world.
Key Insights at a Glance
- Full-year 2025 projections show that issued study permit volumes will nearly meet intended cap figures overall,4 but study permit extensions will account for over 60% of this total issued volume.
- Based on Jan–Apr 2025 data, ApplyBoard now projects that IRCC will approve 124,000 new study permits in 2025, down over 50% from 2024.
- New study permit submissions dropped by 30% in Jan–Apr 2025 compared to the same months in 2024, and fell 70% vs. Jan–Apr 2023.
- New study permit approval rates declined to 33% over the first four months of 2025, resulting in less than 31,000 new approvals.
Projecting Canadian Study Permit Volumes for 2025
Canada’s implementation of study permit caps in 2024 resulted in the number of new student approvals dropping 45% when compared to 2023. This outpaced IRCC’s intended 35% reduction and impacted all study levels, not just those directly affected by cap limitations.
That calculation, however, did not include study permit extensions.5 Study permit extensions represent not only students who are extending their studies, but also those who are changing programs or study levels (often called ‘onshore’ students). When study permit extensions are added into these figures, approvals reach much closer to the intended cap: Around 503,000 new study permits and extensions were approved in 2024, compared to an approval cap of nearly 542,000.6
But the influence of the caps—along with other policy changes impacting international students such as PGWP and proof of finance changes—continued to weaken student mobility toward Canada in early 2025. Based on Jan–Apr 2025 figures, ApplyBoard now projects that 32% fewer study permits will be approved in full-year 2025 compared to 2024:
Study Permit Extensions Overtake New Student Volumes
Our revised projection takes into account two significant shifts that have occurred over the past eighteen months: falling study permit approval rates and a significant increase in study permit extensions.
In fact, current trends indicate that over 60% of study permit approvals and issuances in 2025 will go to students applying for study permit extensions. That’s triple the 20% IRCC originally projected for extension-related cap allocations.
Will Study Permit Volumes Meet Cap Allocations in 2025?
It’s important to note that for the 2025 study permit caps, allocations are based on study permit issuance volumes (as opposed to approvals). The reduced 2025 cap was set at 437,000 study permits issued, including both new study permits and extensions.
Leveraging early 2025 study permit data, ApplyBoard projects that the number of issued study permits may reach 420,000 throughout 2025, just short of the overall cap. But critically, of this total, only 163,000 are projected to be issued to new international students, around half of the number of new students who came to Canada in 2024 and nearly 70% fewer than arrived in 2023.
We expect Canada will more severely miss its 2026 cap targets7 due to declining overall demand and new student inflows, as discussed below.
Although the higher volume of onshore students will help stabilize on-campus diversity and international student enrollment in the short-term, this low new student count will have long-term risks for the country’s education sector. The number of Canadian students enrolling in postsecondary education has fallen by over 5% over the past decade, and smaller new international student cohorts will not be enough to offset graduating students. Thus, it’s highly likely that the total volume of students—domestic and international combined—across Canadian campuses will continue to drop for at least the next three years.
New Student Interest Weakens Across All Study Levels
Onshore students and students extending their studies may help Canada reach its cap targets in 2025, but this trend is unlikely to hold in future years. Students are increasingly likely to consider alternative study abroad destinations, and search engine data has shown that interest in studying in Canada has fallen at a greater rate than for Australia, the UK, or the US. And with issued study permit extensions now outpacing new study permits, the flow of new international students toward Canadian institutions is weakening.
New study permit application volumes are a key indicator of student interest. Given that the timeline from application to approval to issuance can be months long, application intake gives a preview into what we expect to see in terms of future approval and issuance volumes. Recent IRCC data shows that new applications have fallen across all study levels:
In early 2025, new applications dropped by 30% compared to the same period of 2024. While Canadian colleges faced the most direct impacts of the caps in 2024 (and continue to experience substantially lower demand in 2025), Canadian universities are now seeing a broader weakening of student demand. Over the initial four month period in 2025, study permit applications for university bachelor programs fell 39% year-over-year, with applications for university graduate programs dropping by 32%. This decline in graduate applications underscores the magnitude of cap impacts, especially, given that IRCC has assumed that nearly 17% of study permit issuances in 2025 will go to graduate students.
This drop in new study permit applications presents a significant challenge for Canadian institutions. Collaborative efforts to promote education in Canada, along with reinforcing the value of international education and the welcoming nature of Canadian campuses, will be critical to help stabilize this trend through the rest of the year.
New Study Permit Approvals Fall by Nearly 70% in Early 2025
Where application volumes gauge student interest and are an early indicator of student flows, study permit approvals more directly outline how many new international students Canadian institutions can expect. An elevated number of applications can be offset by lower approval rates, and conversely, higher approval rates can stabilize against lower application volumes.
In early 2025, both applications and approval rates have fallen, causing a significant shift in the number of new approved study permits across all study levels:
Across all study levels, the average new study permit approval rate in Jan–Apr 2025 was around 33%, a 14 percentage point drop compared to the full-year 2024 approval rate (~47%). This decline led to fewer than 31,000 new study permit approvals over this four month period, a near 70% decline year-over-year.8 While additional data about study permit refusal reasons is not yet available, this lower approval rate is likely due to a combination of factors, including higher proof of funds requirements.
The average Canadian student visa approval rate for ApplyBoard students reached 82% in 2024, nearly 35 percentage points higher than the sector average approval rate.
Fewer International Students Arriving in Canada
The last stage of the study permit application process—and the one directly tied to the 2025 caps—is study permit issuance. New issuance data reflects the number of students who arrive at a Canadian port of entry to begin their studies, providing the closest snapshot to student enrollment.
During the first few months of the first year of Canada’s caps, student visa issuances dropped only marginally. This is likely because those students who arrived in Jan–Apr 2024 had their study permits approved pre-cap implementation, or were among the first cohort processed once PALs had been fully rolled out. By contrast, new issuances in early 2025 dropped significantly:
Year-over-year, new study permits issued fell by 56% in Jan–Apr 2025. If this trend persists across the full calendar year, we expect as few as 163,000 study permits to be issued to new international students this year, as detailed in our projections above. This would be the fewest new study permits issued in a non-pandemic year since 2016.
In future years, this would also necessarily limit the pool of students who could potentially apply for a study permit extension. As such, it’s unlikely that Canadian institutions will be able to use their full cap allotments in 2026, unless there is a major change in student mobility towards Canada in the coming months.
What Canadian Institutions Can Do to Recruit Top Students
Currently, it appears unlikely that the Canadian government will modify the international student caps before next year. This means that the 2026 caps, which will mirror the 2025 caps, will remain in place. This is largely because the Canadian government remains committed to their goal of decreasing the number of temporary residents in Canada to 5% of the total population through to 2027 as outlined in 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.
While there are no immediate signs that the new Canadian government will revisit the study permit caps, we’re encouraged by Minister Diab’s recent affirmation that Canada recognizes and values and the contributions of international students. ApplyBoard agrees that the potential of international education is beneficial for all, and we remain committed to supporting the stability and sustainability of Canada’s international education sector, helping connect top students to in-demand programs and high-quality institutions.
Transparency and access to information that can help students thrive are key parts of attracting and supporting international students. This includes clarity around IRCC policies and study permit application processing, as well as more localized assistance such as with housing, on-campus employment, or post-study life. Drawing students toward Canada during the cap era also requires a sector investment in increasing efficiency, both at the institutional and governmental level.
Moving forward, it will be more critical than ever for Canadian institutions to alleviate the pressures of increased conversion. By partnering with ApplyBoard, your institution can reduce the resources needed to administrate your international student program while ensuring cap spaces are allocated to students who are very likely to enroll. Through AI-powered program matching, application pre-screening, and recruitment partners training and vetting, ApplyBoard ensures that students put forth stronger applications to IRCC, enhancing their approval rates.
For data-backed guidance on how you can maximize conversion rates, please reach out to your Account Director, or contact ApplyBoard’s Business Development team at schoolpartnerships@applyboard.com.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.
2. All data is sourced from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) unless otherwise noted. Most recent government data cited in this article spans January to April 2025. All figures associated with full-year 2025 are ApplyBoard projections based on Jan–Apr 2025 figures and full-year trends from previous calendar years. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.
3. IRCC’s study permit data is tracked based on three discrete stages: study permit submission, study permit processing, and study permit issuance. Study permit processing denotes when a final decision is made by IRCC (or CBSA) whether to accept or reject the student’s study permit application (or the student opts to withdraw their application). Study permit issuance denotes when a student arrives at a Canadian port of entry and receives their approved study permit application.
4. Canada’s 2025 study permit caps are noted as being applicable to study permit issuance volumes, rather than study permit approval figures as was used in government documents outlining the initial 2024 caps.
5. As of November 8, 2024, international students can no longer change institutions on the same study permit and instead need to apply for a study permit extension, hence further aligning extension data in early 2025 with onshore student populations. Additionally, as of January 2025, most international students applying for a study permit extension due to changing schools of study levels need to provide a new PAL or TAL.
6. These figures include both exempt and non-exempt study levels. While IRCC caps limited approvals for specific study levels, study permits for all levels were included in the overall estimations.
7. Canada’s 2026 study permit caps are intended to remain unchanged from the 2025 caps.
8. It should be noted that the 2024 caps came into effect on Jan 22, 2024, meaning that some study permits processed in early 2024 were cap-exempt. Additionally, study permit processing was slowed during Feb–Apr 2024 due to the rollout of the PAL/TAL allocations and systems within each province.
