Last week, the UK’s Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) released its latest data on international student enrolments. The UK hosted nearly 686,000 international students for the 2024/25 academic year, a decline of 6% over the previous academic year.¹ This is the second straight academic year in which total enrolment figures in the UK fell, and was a larger year-over-year percentage point drop than what occurred in 2023/24. This is a trend we predicted in last year’s HESA data analysis:

[The 2024/25] enrolment data may chart an even larger drop [than 2023/24]. That’s because main applicant student visa submissions fell by 12% in the 2024 calendar year.
— ApplyBoard Insights Team, April 2025.²

 
The UK’s academic years are from August of the previous year to July of the given year.³ This means the declining enrolments in 2024/25 reflect the impact of tightened dependant rules, questions about post-study work opportunities, and fluctuating emerging market currencies, which were ongoing concerns throughout the 2024 calendar year.

Here, we’re unpacking what the latest HESA data reveals about international postgraduate students in the UK during the 2024/25 academic year, and what early visa trends suggest institutions may see next.

Postgraduate Studies Drove Overall Enrolment Declines in the UK in 2024/25

In every academic year since 2021/22, postgraduate studies have accounted for at least 55% of all international student enrolments in the UK. Indeed, 57% of international students in the UK pursued postgraduate studies in 2024/25. And it is this study level that drove the overall enrolment decline of 6%:

Nearly 389,000 international students pursued postgraduate studies in the UK in 2024/25. This was 10% lower than the previous academic year, and 15% below the high-water mark of 2022/23. This trend is in line with what we predicted we’d see during our analysis of that record figure:

[W]e do expect that much of the decline in visa issuances will be at the postgraduate level, since these older students are more likely to be impacted by new restrictions on dependants than the typically younger students at the undergraduate level.
— ApplyBoard Insights Team, September 2024.⁴

 
We’re expecting next year’s data for the 2025/26 academic year will show a bit more stability. That’s because visa data is often a leading indicator of what institutions can expect to see in their classrooms, and we’ve forecasted that about 415,000 main applicants will be issued a UK study visa in 2025.⁵ This would be an increase of 5% over the previous calendar year. And that’s on top of the 9% year-over-year growth in applications processed from main applicants in Q4 2025. These visa trends suggest that demand ticked upward on the macro level.

However, macro-level trends can mask the reality of individual institutions. In December 2025, the British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA) released its annual recruitment data. In it, 61% of universities who responded to BUILA’s survey reported a decrease in postgraduate international enrolments for courses starting in September that year.⁶

Additionally, our analysis of the UK’s provisional monthly application data found that the number of main applicants who applied for a student visa in Q4 2025 fell by 15% compared to Q4 2024. This signals that international student demand softened at the end of the year, likely the first sign of how the UK’s 2025 White Paper on Immigration is affecting the education sector.

All of this points to a 2025/26 intake that may rebound in aggregate, yet ultimately remain uneven across the sector. For institutions, this means treating national momentum as a backdrop, and building approaches around where demand is actually holding up by course, study level, and student population.

Largest Postgraduate Enrolment Dips Are From Student Populations Heavily Impacted by Dependants Ban

Shortly after the UK government announced its intention to limit the ability of international students to bring dependants into the country with them in summer 2023, we flagged the countries with high dependant-to-main-applicant ratios. This ratio captures the number of dependants for every primary student visa issued, and student populations with a high ratio would be the most likely to be impacted by the government’s new policy. In our 2023 analysis, we highlighted Nigeria, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Bangladesh, and Iran, which all had ratios over 0.5, as well as India due to the sheer volume of its dependants.

Nigeria and Sri Lanka were the only two countries in 2022/23 that were issued more dependant study visas than primary study visas.
— ApplyBoard Insights Team, August 2023.⁷

 
During the 2024/25 academic year, Nigeria and Sri Lanka saw the largest year-over-year enrolment declines at the postgraduate level,⁸ while the four other noted countries also experienced some of the largest enrolment drops:

The number of Nigerian and Sri Lankan students enrolled in postgraduate studies in the UK dropped 39% and 36% year-over-year, respectively. India (-13%), Bangladesh (-19%), Ghana (-14%), and Iran (-25%) also experienced significant year-over-year declines.

However, student populations with high dependant-to-main-applicant visa ratios weren’t the only downturns. In fact, enrolments fell for 15 of the UK’s 20 largest postgraduate student populations. But only Italy (-23%) and France (-19%) dropped at a comparable rate to those with historically high dependants ratios, aligning with a multi-year trend of fewer EU-based students pursuing an education in the UK following Brexit.

These results underscore how policy changes can have multi-year impacts, while also illustrating how visa data can help sector leaders anticipate where enrolment pressures will emerge next. Tracking how application and issuance levels shift also provides early visibility into how quickly demand can change. This awareness can be used to support more proactive, strategic planning, such as aligning targets and investments with the student populations most likely to shape future outcomes. Proactive strategy will also help institutions to remain compliant with the new BCA thresholds outlined in the 2025 White Paper.

Eyes on Research-Based Postgraduate Enrolment Spikes

One development in the postgraduate sector to watch is the rising demand for research courses. As postgraduate research programmes aren’t subject to the dependants ban, it’s likely some students shifted their target courses. In 2024/25, nearly 51,000 international students pursued this level of study, which was 7% higher than the previous academic year. Total non-EU student enrolments were up 11%, while EU student enrolments were down 12%:

The outsized year-over-year increases in research-based postgraduate enrolments—especially among student populations from Nepal, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Nigeria, Sri Lanka, and India—fit closely with the markets most disrupted by the dependants restriction on taught postgraduate routes. That alignment has already attracted scrutiny: reporting in late 2025 indicated the Home Office was considering changes to the current exemption for master’s-by-research-style programmes amid concerns about recruitment practices and rapid growth at a small subset of providers.⁹

For institutions, the practical takeaway here is to manage growth in research programmes with extra care. That includes tightening your team’s oversight of agent and marketing messaging, making sure admissions processes assess genuine research fit and readiness, while also scenario-planning for potential changes to dependant eligibility.

And for international student advisors, the key is to centre academic fit in conversations with students interested in these courses. Also, ensure you’re setting clear expectations that dependant rules can change and should never be treated as a guaranteed feature of a programme.

How ApplyBoard Helps Students and Institutions Succeed in the UK

Enrolment patterns in the UK over the 2024/25 academic year reinforce how quickly demand can shift in response to policy and affordability pressure. With tighter compliance expectations on the horizon, institutions and advisers will need stronger student readiness, clearer academic fit, and more frequent in-cycle monitoring to avoid being caught off guard. This preparation is especially relevant where growth is concentrating in areas already attracting added scrutiny, such as in research-based postgraduate courses.

ApplyBoard supports your work by strengthening course selection and application quality through our platform. Our AI-powered matching helps advisers steer students toward programmes where they’re more likely to succeed, while our quality controls and required documentation checks promote stronger, more consistent submissions. We also provide data-backed insights on demand and visa outcomes, helping institutions adjust recruitment focus and student support as conditions change through the cycle.

Want to take your student recruitment goals to the next level? Connect with our UK commercial partnerships team or reach out to your Account Director to discuss strategies tailored to your needs.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. All enrolment data courtesy of HESA.

2. ApplyBoard Insights, For Second Straight Year, International Student Volumes Surpassed Domestic Student Volumes in UK Postgraduate Studies. April 30, 2025.

3. For example, the 2024/25 academic year spans August 2024 to July 2025.

4. ApplyBoard Insights, UK International Enrolment Reached High-Water Mark in the 2022/23 Academic Year. September 16, 2024.

5. All visa application data is sourced from the UK Home Office unless otherwise noted. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.

6. BUILA surveyed members in October and November 2025 and received 69 responses.

7. ApplyBoard Insights, Predicting the Impact of the UK’s Dependants Policy Change on International Students. August 15, 2023.

8. Minimum 300 enrolments.

9. ICEF, UK: Rule changes could be coming for Master of Research programmes. December 11, 2025.