In the 2026 Trends Report, we projected that the United Kingdom would issue around 400,000 study visas to main applicants in 2025, about the same as in 2024. But with full Q3 data and application data through November now available, we’re revising this projection upward. We’re expecting approximately 415,000 main applicants will be issued a UK student visa in 2025, an increase of 5% over 2024.1
However, while visa data shows that 2025 was a year of stability relative to 2024 at the macro level, performance was a lot more variable at the institutional level. The British Universities International Liaison Association (BUILA) released its annual recruitment data in December, which showed that 61% of universities surveyed reported a decrease in postgraduate international enrolments for courses starting in September 2025.2
In other words, macro-level results can mask meaningful impacts that institutions are experiencing. And in 2026, the operating environment will tighten as new Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) thresholds raise expectations across key metrics tied to student sponsorship.3 Institutions will need more predictable conversion from offer to arrival stages and stronger support after enrolment to protect student success outcomes and maintain compliance.
Against this backdrop, institutions need also clearer visibility into where demand is strengthening and which student populations have stronger visa grant rates. Read on for the latest demand and visa outcome trends, and how ApplyBoard can support institutions in navigating the new compliance landscape without sacrificing campus diversity.
Key Insights at a Glance
- From January through September, the UK issued nearly 373,000 study visas to main applicants in 2025. This was 7% more than were issued in the same period in 2024.
- 16 of the UK’s top 20 student populations saw visa grant rates of 95% or more during the first nine months of 2025.
- 97% of Pakistani students who applied for their UK study visa through ApplyBoard for the 2025 intake were successful. The all-market average for Pakistani students in 2025 (Jan–Sep) was 81%.4
- ApplyBoard’s study visa success rates also outperformed the all-market average for students from Nigeria (98% vs. 95%), Bangladesh (90% vs. 77%), and Ghana (100% vs. 89%).
UK on Pace to Issue 5% More Main Applicant Student Visas in 2025 than in 2024
The UK issued nearly 373,000 student visas to main applicants during the first nine months of 2025. This was a 7% increase over the same period in 2024:
In 2023 and 2024, most main applicant student visa issuances were already recorded by the end of September. In fact, 89% of the full-year total in 2023 was issued between January and September, followed by 87% in 2024. While the macro picture is largely defined by this point, Q4 still helps shape where the year ultimately lands, and can determine whether 2025 finishes close to the previous year or ends somewhat higher.
Early signals point to some softening late in the year. Provisional monthly application data shows 48,900 main applicants applied for a student visa in Q4 2025, a 15% decrease compared to the Q4 2024. Assuming Q4 2025’s student visa grant rate matches that of Q4 2024, we’re projecting that around 415,000 international students will be issued a main applicant UK study visa for the full 2025 calendar-year.
Which Student Populations Saw UK Study Visa Success in 2025?
For institutions planning 2026 intakes under tighter BCA expectations, understanding which student populations are seeing consistently strong outcomes can support confident recruitment planning and protect campus diversity. The good news is that, through the first nine months of 2025, 16 of the UK’s top 20 student populations exceeded a 95% visa success rate:
Over 86,000 Chinese students were issued a UK study visa between January and September 2025. While this accounted for nearly one in every four student visa issuances over this period, it was an overall decline of 15% compared to the same months in 2024. Many Chinese students are studying domestically after China heavily invested into its higher education system, expanding students’ access to top-tier facilities and competitive academic programs. Similarly, more Chinese students are choosing other Asian destinations, including Singapore, Japan, and Malaysia, due to these destinations’ geographical proximity and relatively more affordable cost. These students’ shifting outlook reinforces the need for UK institutions to both sharpen their value proposition for Chinese students and broaden enrolment growth to sustain campus diversity.
The good news is that demand for studying in the UK grew across many other parts of the world in 2025. After China, the next eight largest student populations all saw year-over-year growth in issuances, led by India. India’s 85,000 issuances nearly matched China’s volume, and its grant rate remained high at 97%. Another standout was Nigeria, where issuances grew by 78% with a 95% success rate.
India and Nigeria show that strong demand growth can coincide with high visa success rates. But outcomes were more variable across other fast-growing markets in 2025, namely Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ghana—the only top 20 student populations with grant rates below 90%. Looking ahead to 2026, stronger coordination between institutions, students, and student advisors will be essential to improve application quality and readiness in order to ensure students are clearly demonstrating their genuine intent to study.
ApplyBoard Students Have Strong UK Grant Rates
For the 2025 intake, 95% of international students using ApplyBoard to apply for their UK study visa were successful.4 Overall, our students have met or exceeded this approval rate for the past four intake years, with results that often outperform the all-market average:
We noted above that Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Ghana were the UK’s only top 20 student populations with visa grant rates below 90% during the first nine months of 2025. And it’s here that ApplyBoard’s commitment to application quality really shines. 97% of Pakistani students who applied for their UK study visa for the 2025 intake were successful. For comparison, the all-market grant rate for Pakistani students was just 81%, a difference of 16 percentage points.
Similarly, 90% of Bangladeshi and 100% of Ghanaian students who applied for their UK study visa for the 2025 intake were successful, differences of 13 and 11 percentage points, respective
How ApplyBoard Delivers Stronger Student Success Outcomes in the UK
ApplyBoard’s advantage starts with AI-powered matching. By steering students toward courses that align with their academic journey, our platform supports stronger choices and more compelling applications. When students apply to courses that genuinely fit, it becomes easier to build a strong application.
From there, ApplyBoard helps partners deliver higher-quality submissions at scale. Built-in validation steps and guided workflows identify missing items early, improve documentation quality, and reduce preventable errors. This combination of better-fit matching and stronger file preparation helps institutions protect student success outcomes and maintain predictability in the enrolment process.
Preparing for New Student Pathways in 2026
The data from the first nine months of 2025 shows that the UK’s international education sector remained fairly stable compared to 2024. However, with new BCA thresholds, pathways for student success in 2026 will require stronger student readiness and clearer alignment between their course choices, study plans, and career goals.
For institutions, the risk is that tighter expectations push recruitment toward a narrower set of familiar populations. That may feel safer in the short term, but it can limit campus diversity and leave universities more exposed to sudden demand shocks. The encouraging signal from 2025 is that strong outcomes were not confined to one or two markets, which creates room to broaden enrolment while staying focused on quality.
This is where ApplyBoard can help. Our AI-powered matching technology supports better-fit course choices, and our quality controls help student advisors build stronger, more complete applications. ApplyBoard’s data-backed insights also help institutions identify where demand is rising and where visa outcomes are strongest, so support can be targeted where it has the greatest impact.
We also strengthen performance across our partner network with tools like TrainHub, which gives student advisors clearer expectations and practical guidance that improves their readiness and consistency through custom training modules. Combined, these supports help more international students arrive prepared to succeed, while helping institutions protect compliance expectations without sacrificing the diverse intakes that underpin the UK’s global education reputation.
Interested in how ApplyBoard can support your student recruitment goals for 2026? Reach out to our UK commercial partnerships team or connect with your Account Director to discuss strategies tailored to your direct needs.
Subscribe to ApplyInsights
Sign up for the latest insights on international education.
About the ApplyInsights Team
FOOTNOTES:
1. All data is sourced from the UK Home Office unless otherwise noted. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.
2. BUILA surveyed members in October and November 2025 and received 69 responses.
3. Under the new BCA thresholds, institutions will need to keep refusal rates below 5% (up from 10%) and course completion rates above 90% or else face sanctions. This was outlined in the UK government’s 2025 White Paper on Immigration.
4. ApplyBoard’s study visa approval rates are estimates calculated by the ApplyBoard data science team. The calculation is as follows:
Study Visa Approval Rate = Confirmed Study Visa Approvals ÷ (Confirmed Study Visa Approvals + Reported Study Visa Rejections)
Confirmed Study Visa Approval: Applicant has submitted documentary evidence of study visa approval to ApplyBoard and/or has had their enrolment confirmed by the destination institution.
Reported Study Visa Rejection: (a) Applicant has indicated to ApplyBoard that they have been refused a study visa and/or have requested a refund for their tuition deposit due to study visa refusal, and (b) applicant’s enrolment has not been confirmed by the destination institution.
Note: ApplyBoard applicants do not receive any special treatment from governing officials.
