Earlier this month, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) shared how new study permit1 applications will be allotted for 2024. The government is aiming for net zero growth between the 2023 and 2024 fiscal years.2
The government initially noted room under the study permit cap would be determined based on a province or territory’s proportion of Canada’s population. But the final allotments have since been adjusted significantly. Ultimately, these adjustments are a good thing. They better reflect regional approval rates and help insulate some of the larger provinces’ institutions from more damaging losses.
We’ll look at how the numbers stack up, how they compare to current study permit numbers, and explore how this will impact international student enrolment for the Fall 2024 intake and beyond.
Key Insights at a Glance
- After adjustments, IRCC allocated over 552,000 applications for 2024, with a projection of nearly 292,000 approvals.
- Most provinces’ allocations were capped either at a 10% increase or 10% decrease from 2023, moderating the impact of these changes.
- Only five provinces will have fewer allocations in 2024 than applications processed in 2023.
How Study Permit Allocations Will Work
There are two calculations to consider here: first, a cap on the number of study permit applications accepted for review under the new guidelines, and a target for how many study permits will be approved.
The government used historical data to project that 485,000 study permits will expire in 2024. They then subtracted a few different amounts to determine the total number of new study permits to approve in 2024.
Because around 20% of students apply for a permit extension yearly (97,000, in 2023), that number was subtracted from the total. A “buffer” of 24,000 study permits was also included to allow for other variations. This created an initial target number of 364,000 new study permits and, because the approval rate is historically about 60%, an application cap of 606,000, as first announced.
Of the 364,000 permits approved, some will be for students in K-12, master’s programs, or doctoral programs who are exempt from the study permit cap. In 2023, it’s estimated 128,000 study permits were issued for these students.3 By subtracting 128,000 from 364,000, we get 236,000 total permits for programs subject to the study permit cap. Note that this is the pre-adjusted projection, before steps were taken to temper growth rates or to insulate provinces with lower study permit approval rates. After adjustments, the total for 2024 is closer to 292,000 study permit approvals.
Learn about provincial allocation letters, how PGWP eligibility is changing, and more in our Canadian policy updates FAQ.
Final-Adjusted Study Permit Approval Targets by Province
The federal government initially said allocations would be based on each province or territory’s proportion of Canada’s population. In the graph below, the red bars represent IRCC’s projected approvals based on application allotments distributed by population, while the yellow bars represent the final adjusted approval projections. We’ll walk you through what adjustments IRCC made to its allocations.
First, provinces with room to grow their number of approvals in the initial model, like Alberta, Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, and Saskatchewan, were limited to a 10% increase between 2023 and 2024:
Meanwhile, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island, which would have had reductions ranging from 16% to 28%, were capped at a 10% decrease. Provinces that faced more significant cuts were adjusted in a less straightforward way. British Columbia’s decrease slowed from 47% to 18%, while Ontario’s decrease went from 62% to 41%.4
Ultimately, these adjustments were thoughtfully implemented. They encourage more sustainable growth from provinces whose allocations have increased. And, by capping reductions at 10% for multiple provinces, while making the cuts to Ontario and BC less drastic, institutions in those locations will be better able to adapt to the new requirements.
Encouraging Sustainable Growth
As we’ve noted before, the national permit approval rate average closely follows the approval rates for Ontario and British Columbia, as these two provinces accounted for 70% of study permit applications processed from 2021 through 2023. The combined approval rate for the remaining 8 provinces has been under 50% since 2019. This means that using a flat approval rate based on the national average, rather than each province’s historical approval rate, would put most regions at a disadvantage.
It’s great news that the government’s final adjusted projections account for historical approval rates. This shift led to significant application allotment adjustments for Quebec, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, PEI, and Saskatchewan.
To see if historical approval rate data aligns with the federal government’s “top-up” approach, we’ve calculated a three-year average study permit approval rate for each province, using IRCC data from 2021 to 2023. For this calculation, we’ve only included the approval rate for capped programs (no K-12 or postgraduate degree programs).
Then, we used this three-year approval rate to calculate a projected number of approved permits per province, using the IRCC’s revised application allocations. That’s noted in the last column of the chart below.
In some cases, the three-year historic approval rate projects more study permit approvals than the federal projection. This is true for Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia. It’s also the case for Alberta and British Columbia, but their approval rates are historically over 60%, so they did not receive “top-up” allocations. In others, the federal projection is more optimistic.
This top-up approach provides provinces with lower approval rates more applications in order to get closer to their targeted approvals for 2024. And that’s assuming approval rates remain closer to their historical average. With the cap placing increased pressure on institutions to raise their approval rates (since every refusal is a lost allocation), it’s likely we’ll see increased approval rates this year. Whether institutions in these provinces will use their full allocation, however, remains to be seen.
2023 Student Applications Versus 2024 Projected Allocations
After the adjustments, half of the provinces will have more application allocations in 2024 than they processed in 2023:
British Columbia is a good example of how the adjusted allocations better reflect student interest levels. Although fewer applications for BC institutions will be processed in 2024, the adjustments mean only 1,400 fewer applications will be processed compared to 2023. For comparison, the province would’ve seen a difference of over 30,000 before the adjustments. IRCC accounting for the reality of these provinces in the final allocation numbers is certainly a positive development.
In fact, Ontario is the only province where the number of allocated applications changes by more than 1,500 compared to 2023. It’s a significant change, but one aligned with other sector policy shifts. For example, as of May 15, international graduates from public-private partnerships will no longer be eligible for Canada’s post-graduation work permit. This can make those institutions, many of which are in Ontario, less enticing for students.
Strategies for Welcoming New Students
Now that all provinces and territories have their study permit allocations for 2024, institutions must be prepared for an uptick in volume from international students. Some will be excited to start in Fall 2024, where others might defer to Winter 2025 to improve their chances. This may be especially true for institutions in Ontario, where space in capped programs is now more competitive. Remember, applications for Winter 2025 count toward provinces’ 2024 allocations, because these permits will be assessed in 2024.
On the flip side, other students may be hesitant to choose Canada due to the shifting regulations. Our most recent Student Pulse Survey showed that feeling welcome while abroad remains the second-most important driver for international students when they assess study destinations, a metric Canada is losing ground on. More than ever, it’s important for academic institutions (and the cities and provinces they’re a part of) to show when international students come to Canada, everyone benefits: from new perspectives in the classroom to graduates who bring innovative approaches to industry.
For institutions to retain interest from this next cohort, a clear and hopeful communication style is vital. Government policy can be confusing in one’s first language; understanding it in a second or fourth language can be intimidating. Transparency around students’ application processing times, and approachable guidelines for study permit applications, can help prospective students stay focused and optimistic.
The year ahead will have its share of changes and challenges, but also opportunities for institutions who continue to connect meaningfully with these students.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. For the purposes of this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.
2. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Minister Miller issues statement on international student allocations for provinces and territories. Apr. 5, 2024.
3. In the IRCC news release, this number was 140,000. However, 140,000 does not work with the subsequent government calculations, so we’ve revised it for this article. [364,000 (total approved permits, pre-cap) – 140,000 (exempt students) = 224,000 (study permits under the cap), not 236,000, as noted in the government news release.] If the exempt student population is 128,000 instead, the calculation works: 364,000-128,000=236,000 approved study permits under the cap, as it appears in the release.
4. Canada’s territories also saw their numbers adjusted. However, as all three territories have comparatively small international student volumes, this article focuses on the provinces in greater detail.
