The international education sector in Canada is navigating its most significant period of policy-driven change. As we discussed earlier this year, the impacts of Canada’s caps on student demand have resulted in the majority of recent study permit issuances1 being granted to students already residing in Canada, fundamentally altering the enrolment mix.
Recent study permit data confirms this historic shift in student volume,2 marking a substantial decline in the intake of new international students and demanding strategic recalibration from post-secondary institutions nationwide. This data underscores a stark reality: ApplyBoard projects the federal government is on track to approve only 80,000 new student visas for international post-secondary students in full-year 2025.3 This projected volume represents the lowest intake of new international students witnessed in the past decade, signaling an unprecedented shift in Canada’s global student recruitment model.
Today, we’re breaking down the full impact of these shifts and taking a closer look at which post-secondary study levels have experienced the greatest impact. We’ll also provide updated projections for 2025, compare recent study permit trends to those earlier in the year, and detail our outlook for Canada’s international education sector in 2026.
Key Insights at a Glance
- Based on Jan–Aug 2025 data, ApplyBoard projects that IRCC will approve only 80,000 new study permits for international post-secondary students in full-year 2025, the lowest amount within the past decade.
- Onshore students, or those who receive a study permit extension, are on track to account for nearly two-thirds of all study permits approved and issued in 2025.
- Canadian colleges have been particularly impacted by student volume shifts in 2025, with extensions representing nearly 80% of all study permit issuances.
- While student visa data for Jun–Aug 2025 shows a significant rise in overall post-secondary study permit approvals, approval rates remain low for many major student populations including students from India, the Philippines, and most African nations.
Post-Secondary Study Permits On Track for Decade Low
When Canada’s study permit caps were implemented in 2024, the government’s stated intention was to reduce Canada’s intake of international students by 35%.4 A further 10% reduction was implemented in 2025, before caps were set to stabilize in 2026.
However, the actual impact on student demand and student visa volumes has far surpassed these initial intentions. Rather than dropping by 35% in 2024, study permit approvals for new post-secondary students fell by 52%, dropping below 2018 levels. And, based on new IRCC data for the first eight months of 2025, approvals are set to decline by over 50% again this year:
We project that only 80,000 new study permits will be approved for international post-secondary students in 2025, representing a 62% decline from 2024. This decrease is caused not only by weakening student demand towards Canada, but also by a significant decline in study permit approval rates. Initial cap calculations were based on a 60% study permit approval rate, yet post-secondary approval rates reached only 37% through the first eight months of 2025.5
Both low application volumes and low approval rates have naturally led to a decline in the number of new study permits issued. Given that issuance is the final stage of the student visa process—denoting when a student arrives at a Canadian port of entry to begin their studies—low issued visa volumes directly represent fewer international students arriving in Canada to begin their studies, and thus steep declines in enrolment. Although government targets anticipated a ~42% decrease in new international post-secondary students from 2023 to 2025, actual student inflows are projected to drop by 81%. If this projection is realized over the next two months, Canada will have welcomed fewer international post-secondary students in 2025 than in any non-pandemic year over the last decade.
Onshore Extensions Claim ⅔ of All Approvals and Issuances
Despite a sharp decline in new international student enrolment, overall international student populations on Canadian campuses are set to remain comparatively stable. Indeed, while new student inflows have slowed, proportionally more international students are staying in Canada, either extending their study period or enrolling in additional study programs.
This means that international students already in Canada will account for nearly two thirds of all study permit issuances in 2025:
This substantial increase in the proportion of issuances for study permit extensions is nearly inverse to other non-pandemic years. For example, in 2022, only 30% of study permits were issued to onshore students. A higher percentage of issuances to new students represents growth and stability for Canadian institutions, with graduating students replaced by new, incoming international students on campus.
However, the current trend favouring study permit extensions presents a clear risk: international student populations on Canadian campuses are set to decline substantially in the coming years. Students who receive a study permit extension are more likely to be closer to graduation, either because they extended their permit to finish their studies or because they are enrolling in post-graduation programs that tend to have shorter durations. As such, the population of international students on study permit extensions cannot remain stable without an adequate flow of new students.
As new student inflows weaken, there is an increased risk that total international student populations may decline by as much as 50% in 2026. This could create challenging financial conditions for many Canadian institutions—beyond the impacts noted by many institutions in 2025—and fundamentally weaken the diversity of Canada’s student population.
Canadian Colleges Especially Impacted by Onshore Shift
Over the past year, some institutions have increased their onshore recruitment efforts in response to this changing landscape, aiming to encourage graduates to pursue further qualifications to enhance their career prospects and opportunities. Such alternative strategies are critical for the stability of many Canadian institutions, especially Canadian colleges:
Through the first eight months of 2025, Canadian universities have seen a near 50/50 split among new international students and onshore students receiving study permit issuances. However, Canadian colleges have seen a much stronger skew towards onshore, with 77% of all issued study permits going towards extensions. If this trend continues for the full year, new study permits issued for all Canadian college programs are unlikely to reach 30,000.
This represents a fundamental rebalancing of student inflows to Canadian institutions. Colleges are on pace to account for about 30% of all new Canadian study permits issued in 2025, down from 57% just two years ago. Given that recent PGWP changes have a significantly greater impact on college graduates than university grads, and given that many in-demand jobs are aligned with college level programs,6 it’s likely that the compound effect of Canadian government policy changes will create significant challenges in addressing labour shortages in the coming years.
Summer Study Permit Data Shows Soft Recovery
It’s worth noting that there are some signs of soft recovery for Canada’s beleaguered international education sector. Study permit data for the summer of 2025 shows a marked increase in study permit approval rates. While average approval rates did not surpass 30% until May of this year, approval rates in August grew to over 55%:
This increase in approval rates came in the nick of time, as the summer months are typically Canada’s busiest application period. Combining a rising approval rate during this busy season led to a notable increase in study permit approvals during the Jun–Aug months. Over 35,000 new study permits were approved for international post-secondary students over these three months, compared to just over 23,000 in the five months prior. This increase was especially pronounced for Canadian universities, where August alone accounted for over one-third of the year-to-date total in new study permit approvals. For Canadian universities, this may be a sign that study permit approval rates are finally returning to IRCC target rates, making potential student flows more predictable heading into 2026.
However, for Canadian colleges, the outlook for full-year 2025 is more challenging. The summer months did show some improvement in study permit approvals, but average approval rates remained around 25%. With three-quarters of international applicants denied a study permit for Canadian college programs, PAL allocations are a major concern. Low approval rates may lead some colleges to centralize their recruitment efforts towards high conversion countries, significantly reducing on-campus diversity and further undermining Canada’s global image as welcoming to all students. Instead, we encourage Canadian colleges to work with collaborative partners like ApplyBoard to increase student conversion from all source countries through rigorous application screening, smart program matching, and recruitment network training.
Strategic Recalibration for a Path Forward
Canada’s international education sector has reached a pivotal juncture, with data from the first eight months of 2025 showing how critical it is for post-secondary institutions to recalibrate their recruitment efforts. Our projected decade-low intake of only 80,000 new international post-secondary students for the full year, coupled with unchanged 2026 student caps, confirms that Canada’s post-secondary sector is unlikely to achieve stability or sustainability in the coming years.
The key takeaway for institutions is the looming demographic cliff. The current reliance on onshore study permit extensions means the international student population faces a potential steep decline in 2026 and 2027, as current students graduate without sufficient new offshore students to replace them. Institutions need to actively engage on international enrolment to try to mitigate some of these declines, and they should also leverage technology solutions that reduce resource needs while providing a high-impact experience to students and recruitment teams.
This challenge is most acute for Canadian colleges. Colleges must focus resources on partners that ensure rigorous applicant screening and strong study-plan alignment to improve approval rates. Additionally, institutions need to ensure they provide continued support to their current international student populations, as leveraging word-of-mouth, online testimonials, and alumni networks will likely be necessary to attain full PAL allocation usage next year.
For all institutions, sustainability is now contingent upon a dual strategy: proactive risk mitigation and selective growth. The path forward requires moving beyond reactive management to structural adaptation. By embracing data-driven decision-making and aggressively improving applicant quality across the recruitment network, Canadian institutions can navigate this policy-constrained environment and secure a more stable, albeit smaller, international education sector.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. Study permit data is tracked based on three discrete stages: study permit submission, study permit processing, and study permit issuance. Study permit processing (approval/refusal) denotes when a final decision is made by IRCC (or CBSA) whether to accept or reject the student’s study permit application (or the student opts to withdraw their application). Study permit issuance denotes when a student arrives at a Canadian port of entry and receives their approved study permit application.
2. All data is sourced from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) unless otherwise noted. Most recent government data cited in this article spans January to August 2025. All figures associated with full-year 2025 are ApplyBoard projections based on Jan–Aug 2025 figures and full-year trends from previous calendar years. Projections may be subject to change based on changing conditions and source data.
3. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably.
4. Canada’s 2025 study permit caps are noted as being applicable to study permit issuance volumes, rather than study permit approval figures as was used in government documents outlining the initial 2024 caps.
5. Initial cap calculations were later modified—via provincial top-ups and reallocations—shifting the projected approval rate to 53% for 2024.
6. Such as nursing, hospitality, trades, early childhood education, and supply chain management.
