Top Trends in International Education for 2024 and Beyond

Alignment for Student and Institution Success

An unparalleled number of people are pursuing an international education. Even as geopolitical tensions and cost-of-living pressures increase across the globe, students are seeking opportunities to develop the skills and knowledge they need to find fulfilling careers. These trailblazers will have a profound impact on the world in the years to come.

Top Trends in International Education for 2024 and Beyond

Alignment for Student and Institution Success

With governments and institutions in the major English-speaking destinations having largely met their international enrollment targets, stakeholders in these international education sectors have become more focused on student quality and diversity than ever before. In this case, quality does not simply mean students achieving high test scores, but a more holistic view of how well students are thriving abroad. And cross-sector alignment is paramount to accessing and achieving that quality. When stakeholders work collectively in pursuit of common goals, students ultimately receive a better educational experience and are better positioned to succeed during and after their studies.

This report is intended to help stakeholders in international education navigate the increasingly competitive sector landscape. Here, we outline key trends that are driving international education in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. We bring together government data, industry reports, and ApplyBoard modelling to provide insight into major factors shaping the sector. To support future recruitment plans and long-term growth strategies, we delve into key established and emerging student populations. And we take the long view on how these trends will impact student mobility in the next decade.

The Unprecedented Demand for International Education

Last year, our trends report examined the new era of student choice. More than ever, we envisioned destination markets competing with each other to appeal to international students.

The past year has seen these competitive efforts bear fruit. A record-high 1.9 million residence permits were issued for international tertiary-level students across OECD countries in 2022.¹ And this counts only students in higher education, just one component of student mobility. This shows that the demand for an international education isn’t a post-COVID bubble, but rather a new reality that’s shifting the landscape of the sector.

ICEF, OECD reports that international student flows reached a record high in 2022. October 2023.

International Application Volumes Surge to Record Highs (Again)

Canada processed nearly 740,000 student visa² applications in 2022,³ shattering the previous year’s record by 34%.⁴ 2023 is also poised for yet another all-time high. Canada processed more than 660,000 applications through the first nine months of the calendar year.

The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enroll in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is approved for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies.

All Canadian study permit data used in this report is provided courtesy of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC). Data includes new study permits only.

Throughout this report, we round whole numbers to the nearest thousand if over 10,000 and nearest hundred if under 10,000. Percentages are based on the exact data, not the rounded numbers.

Australia’s international education sector recovered tremendously after the country’s near two-year border closure ended in December 2021. Over 321,000 student visa applications were lodged in calendar year 2022, surpassing the previous high water mark by 23%.⁵ And like Canada’s, Australia’s 2023 calendar year is primed to smash records, with over 298,000 applications already lodged through September.

All Australian student visa data used in this report is sourced from the Australian Department of Home Affairs (ADHA). Data includes subclass 500 and subclass 570 to 576 visas granted to primary applicants located outside Australia only.

Student visa applications were up at least 23% in each of the major English-speaking destination countries in 2022.

The United States experienced the largest swing in student interest. The US government processed more than 630,000 F-1 visa applications for its 2022 fiscal year.⁶ This was 42% more than in 2021 and the highest number of student visa applications processed since 2016, when the US sector started trending downward.

All US student visa data used in this report is sourced from the U.S. Department of State. US government fiscal years run from October of the previous year to September of the given year.

In the United Kingdom, nearly 490,000 sponsored study visa applications were processed in 2022.⁷ This surpassed the previous year by 26%. But that growth looks to have plateaued. During the first six months of 2023, the UK processed 105,000 visas for sponsored study. While this was 4% more than the same period in 2022, it’s a far cry from the 58% growth between 2021 and 2022. Indeed, many UK institutions reported lower-than-expected enrollment for the September 2023 intake and a decline in applications looking toward January 2024 and beyond.⁸

All UK study visa data used in this report is sourced from the UK Home Office. Data includes main applicants only.

The PIE News, UK sample of unis sees autumn declines in Nigeria and India enrolments. October 2023.

Competition Heating Up from Non-Anglophone Destination Markets

In addition to vying with each other, the major English-speaking destination countries face increased competition from non-Anglophone destination markets entering 2024. We predict that Germany will be their biggest contender for international students. Germany hosted nearly 368,000 students in 2022/23, up 5% over 2021/22 and a new record high.⁹ Germany offers free tuition for nearly all study programs at public universities,¹⁰ and students can apply for an extended 18-month job-seeking visa to find work related to their area of study.¹¹ Nearly 40% of international students in Germany remain in the country long-term.¹²

Make it in Germany, Prospects after graduation.

ICEF, International enrolments in German higher education rise again for a new record. October 2023.

Study.eu, Study in Germany for free: What you need to know. February 2023.

Federal Statistical Office, One third of international students stay in Germany for a longer period. October 2022.

In a global survey measuring student satisfaction, Germany had the second-highest average score. Of the big four English destinations, only the US received a score above the global average.¹³

Studyportals, Student Satisfaction: A 2023 Global Overview. October 2023.

At the same time, destinations such as Spain, Portugal, Chile, and Mexico are building pathways with Latin American (LATAM) students. In fact, Chile was the fastest-growing destination in the world from 2017 to 2022, mostly due to the strength of its Spanish-led instruction.¹⁴

The number of international students in Chile grew from 3,200 in 2017 to 19,000 in 2022, an increase of 486%. For a full breakdown of Chile’s growth and other countries with at least 8,000 international students that are emerging as strong destination markets, read our ApplyInsights article here.

We also anticipate China re-entering the international ed space as a top study destination. China hosted nearly half a million students in 2019.¹⁵ This number dropped to 292,000 in 2022. Like in Australia, border closures suppressed China’s capacity to welcome students as its Zero-COVID policy made entering the country difficult for students for nearly three years.

IIE, Project Atlas.

Additionally, keep an eye on both South Korea and Taiwan. The South Korean Ministry of Education recently announced its “South Korea 300K Project,” a collaborative strategy established among institutions, local industries, and local governments that aims to attract 300,000 international students by 2027.¹⁶ In addition to increasing the quota for government scholarships, the South Korea 300K Project will reduce language barriers by introducing more lenient proficiency requirements and also streamline permanent residency applications by allowing eligible students to obtain permanent residency after three years instead of six.¹⁷

Ministry of Education, MOE to announce Study Korea 300K Project: Korea aims to be the top 10 world-leading countries for study abroad by 2027. August 2023.

ICEF, South Korea aims to attract 300,000 international students by 2027. August 2023.

Taiwan, meanwhile, plans to recruit more than 320,000 international students by 2030, and hopes to increase its post-graduation retention rate from 40% to 70%.¹⁸

StudyTravel, Taiwan outlines plans to boost international student recruitment. September 2023.

Sector Alignment a Key Pathway for Prosperity

With numbers of incoming students reaching new heights around the globe over consecutive years, the quality of student outcomes will be a larger focal point in 2024 and beyond. Improving sector alignment is critical for destination countries to develop more pathways for prosperity for all stakeholders.

Governments and institutions will need to align their strategic messaging and intake goals to ensure enough seats and near-campus beds are available for students. Institutions and businesses will need to align on curriculum and employability. Lastly, governments and businesses will need to align on post-graduation stay-and-work rights.

As an example, an Australian parliamentary report recently recommended that the government lead a “Team Australia” program to build better coordination among Australian Government agencies, state and territory governments, and the international education sector. This approach aims to address issues of fragmentation, duplication, and divisive competition in the current marketing of Australian education to the world.¹⁹ In so doing, this wide-scale sector alignment hopes to spur investments in new markets, clear pathways to hiring international students, integrate more work placements, and remove impediments to purpose-built student accommodations development.²⁰

Parliament of Australia, Inquiry into Australia’s tourism and international education sectors. October 2023.

ICEF, Australia: Parliamentary report recommends diversification and expanded regulation of agents. October 2023.

The destination markets that have multiple stakeholders working strategically together will be the ones to raise the standard of the sector. Doing so is imperative to ensure success for all members of international education—students, institutions, businesses, and communities.

Sector Alignment a Key Pathway for Prosperity

Parliament of Australia, Inquiry into Australia’s tourism and international education sectors. October 2023.

ICEF, Australia: Parliamentary report recommends diversification and expanded regulation of agents. October 2023.

Aging Destination Markets Need Skilled Workers

All of the major English-speaking destinations have an aging population. In fact, projections show the percentage of the population aged 65 and older reaching 20% or more by 2030 in all four countries.²¹

Data courtesy of UN Population Prospects via PopulationPyramid.net.

Aging demographics significantly alter the employment landscape. The employment rate for those aged 65 and over in the UK is 31%.²² But less than one in six of this age demographic stays in the workforce in the US²³ and Australia.²⁴

Government Office for Science, Future of an Ageing Population. 2016.

The Administration for Community Living, 2021 Profile of Older Americans. November 2022.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Older Australians. June 2023.

As more of the population in these destination markets reaches retirement age over the coming decade, international students will be a key demographic for supporting communal prosperity. A booming economy relies on new ideas and voices to drive innovation. For example, immigrants are 42% more likely than Canadians who were born in Canada to either found a business or be self-employed.²⁵

Immigration.ca, Immigrants Start More Businesses And Refugees Are More Loyal Employees, Studies Reveal. August 2022.

Just as we were told about the risks of climate change years before heat waves engulfed Europe and America in 2022, we are now on notice about the demographic changes that will reconfigure our economy and our society in the next 20 years. It is imperative that we act on these warnings and prepare today.

— Erika James, Dean of Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and Lynn Perry Wooten, President of Simmons College²⁶

Fortune, Here’s what an aging workforce means for America’s employers. September 2022.

Replacing Retirees Will Require Alignment on Stay-and-Work Messaging

Because of their aging populations, these destination markets need to address the inevitable impacts on their workforce now. Immigration and international education will be vital for replacing the skilled workers who enter retirement, which in turn will necessitate government and institutional alignment—particularly around stay-and-work messaging.

70% of respondents to ApplyBoard’s Recruitment Partner Pulse Survey cited post-graduation work opportunities as factoring into a student’s study location preference. Additional surveys show that at least 48% of students interested in studying in North America and the UK are looking for a clear path to permanent residency post-degree.²⁷ ²⁸

QS, The recruitment edge: North America. September 2023.

QS, The recruitment edge: UK. September 2023.

But while most destinations and institutions promote post-graduation work opportunities, one of the most common causes for a visa refusal is a student’s failure to convince government officers that they intend to return to their home country after graduation.²⁹

For example, 77% of Canadian study permit refusals from 2021 to 2022 cited a failure to convince IRCC that the purpose of the applicant’s visit was to study. For a full breakdown of student visa refusal reasons in Canada, read our ApplyInsights article here.

Better alignment here would be a win for all: for students, it would mean clearer application guidelines without a need to lie about their career aspirations; for institutions and communities, it would mean increased quality of applications and inflows.

Immigration will be crucial to addressing [Canada’s] labour shortage. By allowing international students to work more while they study, we can help ease pressing needs in many sectors across the country while providing more opportunities for international students to gain valuable Canadian work experience and continue contributing to our short-term recovery and long-term prosperity.

— The Honourable Sean Fraser, Former Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship³⁰

IRCC, International students to help address Canada’s labour shortage. October 2022.

Australia and Canada are leading the way on this front. The Australian Government’s student visa reforms include provisions that allow international students to express their intent to migrate.³¹

No Borders, Australian Government Introduces New Genuine Student Test (GST) for International Student Visas.

Canada, meanwhile, revised dual intent instructions for immigration officers earlier this year. These instructions emphasized that different intentions should be viewed as complementary rather than contradictory, and that Canadian work experience is a strong indicator for successful settlement.³²

IRCC, Program delivery update: Temporary residents – Dual intent. April 2023.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has also proposed amendments to regulations governing H-1B specialty occupation workers. An H-1B visa allows US employers to hire foreign workers with specialized skills to work in the US for a specific period of time.³³ The DHS proposal would automatically extend F-1 status and post-completion Optional Practical Training (OPT) until April 1 of the relevant fiscal year for which an H-1B petition is requested in order to prevent disruptions in employment authorization.³⁴

For a breakdown on students’ rights to work in the US, see our blog here.

Federal Register, Modernizing H-1B Requirements, Providing Flexibility in the F-1 Program, and Program Improvements Affecting Other Nonimmigrant Workers. October 2023.

Aligning Student Inflows with Job Market Needs

International education stakeholders will need to work alongside businesses to ensure that student inflows meet the needs of both the public and private sphere as more workers enter retirement. Business and institution alignment is critical to streamline programs that develop students’ employability skills. This includes counselling students on the many career paths available to them through their studies.

If I didn’t have access to structured mentorship opportunities where I could build relationships with industry experts, I wouldn’t have been able to see the bigger picture of what my career could look like after graduation. My mentors helped outline the different paths I could take and ultimately guided me to make a more informed decision in the job market.

— Ramneet Brar, 2023 ApplyBoard International Alumni of Impact Winner

Opportunity to Develop Student Skills in Health-Related Fields

Aging populations require increased health care services. The industry is facing shortages across the world, and those gaps are only forecasted to grow, with the WHO estimating a global shortfall of 10 million health workers by 2030.³⁵

World Health Organization, Health Workforce.

Crucially, the National Medical Commission of India recently received recognition status from the World Federation for Medical Education (WFME). This should pave the way for Indian medical graduates to pursue postgraduate training and practice medicine in countries that require WFME recognition—including Canada, the US, and Australia.³⁶

The Economic Times, Indian medical graduates can now practice in US, Canada & Australia. September 2023.

Job vacancies in the health care and social assistance field in Canada reached 144,000 in Q2 2023—up 5% over Q2 2022—with a vacancy rate of 6%.³⁷ Forecasts show the job demand in this field increasing by 16% from 2020 to 2030,³⁸ and expenditures growing by 88% from 2019 to 2040.³⁹

Statistics Canada, Job vacancies, payroll employees, and job vacancy rate by industry sector, quarterly, adjusted for seasonality. September 2023.

Randstad, top trends for healthcare jobs in 2024. September 2023.

The Fraser Institute, Aging and Expenditures on Health Care. March 2021.

In the UK, the field saw 179,000 vacancies during the reporting period of July to September 2023.⁴⁰ The UK is expected to need over 2.2 million professionals in health and social care fields by 2035.⁴¹

Office for National Statistics, VACS02: Vacancies by industry. October 2023.

Universities UK, Jobs of the future. October 2023.

23% of respondents to the October 2023 edition of ApplyBoard’s Student Pulse Survey indicated that they were interested in studying health.⁴²

Email survey conducted of ApplyBoard prospective students. 266 respondents.

In the US, vacancies in this field surpassed 1.7 million as of August 2023, with a vacancy rate of 7.5%.⁴³ Health care jobs are expected to grow by 13% from 2021 to 2031—faster than the average for all occupations—including by 46% in nursing.⁴⁴

US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job openings levels and rates by industry and region, seasonally adjusted.

Purdue Global, Health Care Job Growth Remains Strong Through 2031. June 2023.

The field saw 68,000 vacancies in Australia in August 2023.⁴⁵ And the country is expected to require 250,000 more skilled health and social care workers by 2027.⁴⁶

Australian Bureau of Statistics, Job Vacancies, Australia. August 2023.

The Age, Australia urgently needs a health workforce plan. May 2022.

International students will be a critical demographic for filling the gaps that arise as more workers in health care fields retire. As such, it’s crucial for governments, institutions, and employers to align on policies, curriculum, and career guidance in order to establish pathways to success for all involved before the coming exodus.

Growing Skills Gaps in STEM

Another group of fields requiring alignment between the international ed sector and businesses is science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). Projections indicate that destination markets will face significant skills shortages in STEM.

In Canada, Ontario alone projects the need for more than 233,000 STEM graduates to fill jobs between 2022 and 2030.⁴⁷ The UK will require over 1.9 million STEM professionals by 2035.⁴⁸ STEM-related careers in the US are expected to grow 15% between 2021 and 2031—representing an increase of nearly 800,000 jobs.⁴⁹ And jobs in STEM are forecasted to grow 14% from 2021 to 2026 in Australia.⁵⁰

Ontario’s Universities, Fueling Ontario’s Economic Recovery Through Highly Skilled STEM Talent. March 2022.

Universities UK, Jobs of the future. October 2023.

CNBC, The 7 fastest-growing STEM jobs that pay over $100,000. March 2023.

National Skills Commission, Projecting employment to 2026. March 2022.

But these countries may find recruiting for STEM difficult. That’s because studies indicate that students do not receive enough mentorship about how they may enter STEM fields. A study by IBM found that 40% of students surveyed felt the biggest barrier to pursuing STEM development was not knowing where to start additionally, many respondents did not know which careers fall into the STEM category.⁵¹

Cision, New IBM survey reveals the greatest perceived barrier to professional or technical skill development is that programs are too expensive. February 2023.

Indeed, on the ApplyBoard platform, business and management degree searches have taken a larger proportion of unique student inquiries since 2021. Through October 2023, they accounted for 33.8% of all field of study searches, up nearly a percentage point over full-year 2022. Our student survey reflects these findings as well, with nearly 36% of respondents citing business as a program of choice.

In Canada, while federal authorities have established support mechanics to help immigrants integrate into their professions, it falls on provincial jurisdiction to certify these professionals, and much of this responsibility and processing gets delegated to businesses.⁵² This speaks to misalignment: rather than working alongside one another, stakeholders perpetually transfer the integration of much-needed skilled workers onto other parties.

Gwyn Morgan, Canada’s STEM Education Gap: The Need for More Science-Based Professionals. November 2022.

Top Stories That Will Shape International Education in 2024

Various high-profile shifts impacting the international education landscape may make 2024 a tumultuous year, further emphasizing the need for alignment and cohesion across the sector.

Housing shortages are dominating news cycles and public consciousness. These shortages will be a recurring issue in several upcoming elections, which themselves are likely to influence student sentiment about studying in a particular country. And significant policy changes already in the public sphere will undoubtedly change international ed in the coming year.

Housing Shortages Loom Over the Sector

Housing shortages are arguably the largest issue facing every destination market. These shortages affect a country’s capacity to house students and add undue stress and uncertainty to a student’s stay in the country. This issue won’t be solved within a year.

In general, Canada will require 3.5 million more housing units on top of what’s already being built by 2030, with Ontario and British Columbia accounting for about 60% of this gap.⁵³ The United States is experiencing a shortage of between 5.5 and 6.8 million units, with the supply and demand gap expected to widen every year.⁵⁴ The UK faces a backlog of 4.3 million homes.⁵⁵ And Australia will see a supply shortage of nearly 253,000 units by 2028.⁵⁶

Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, Housing shortages in Canada: Updating how much housing we need by 2030. September 2023.

Norada, Housing Shortage in the US: Challenges and Solutions. September 2023.

Centre for Cities, The housebuilding crisis: The UK’s 4 million missing homes. February 2023.

The PIE News, Housing shortage ‘exacerbated’ by int’ls in Australia. July 2023.

Both economists and governments believe that the labour force requires more skilled workers in order to move forward on this issue.⁵⁷

CIC, Is immigration causing Canada’s housing crisis? August 2023.

How Purpose-Built Student Accommodations Offer a Way Through the Housing Crisis

Purpose-built student accommodations (PBSAs)—whether on or off campus—are a significant tool that countries can use to help alleviate housing pressures.

If you create a bed for student housing on campus, it’s like creating two beds for the city because you’ve put the student in a bed on the campus and you freed up the bed they would have been living in the city.

— Michael Porritt, Vice President of Advisory Services, Scion⁵⁸

The PIE News, How to solve the international student housing crisis. September 2023.

But the supply crunch of PBSAs has caused 53% of the global student population to opt for private accommodations in major education markets.⁵⁹ The US and UK have enough PBSA beds for about 30% of their student population, with Canada at just 12%.⁶⁰

ICEF, Student housing investments jumped in 2022 but still lag behind demand. March 2023.

RENX, Canada lags behind U.S., Europe when it comes to student housing. June 2023.

Housing sector experts emphasize the need for greater collaboration and transparency between local councils, institutions, purpose-built student accommodation operators, and developers. Additionally, they highlight that governments play an important role in facilitating this large-scale alignment.⁶¹

The PIE News, How to solve the international student housing crisis. September 2023.

Leading Models of Multi-Stakeholder Alignment in Building PBSAs

Exemplifying cross-sector alignment, the Netherlands enacted The National Action Plan for Student Accommodation in 2022, which developed agreements among the government, accommodations providers, universities, and student organizations to build an additional 60,000 affordable student housing units by 2030.⁶² Plans are now in place for more than a third of these beds.⁶³

Universities of the Netherlands, National Action Plan for Student Accommodation: 60,000 additional student housing units by 2030. September 2022.

ICEF, Netherlands making progress toward ambitious student housing target. September 2023.

Through its multi-stakeholder alignment, the action plan aims to not only develop better data on student intakes and peak periods of demand, but also to create more housing supply and sustainable, affordable student accommodations. The Netherlands hosted over 115,000 international students in 2022, an increase of 69% over 2017.⁶⁴

IIE, Project Atlas.

In Canada, British Columbia’s StrongerBC: Future Ready Action Plan demonstrates similar cross-sector alignment.⁶⁵ The provincial government offered campuses grants and low-interest loans—while lifting restrictions on public-private partnerships—to make construction of housing near campus easier. As a result, the province expects to add over 8,000 beds by 2028.⁶⁶

Government of British Columbia, StrongerBC for Everyone: Future Ready Action Plan. May 2023.

The PIE News, How to solve the international student housing crisis. September 2023.

Likewise, California legislators recently removed barriers to universities building new housing.⁶⁷ 35 public campuses in the state will receive US$2.1 billion to create affordable student housing, with plans in place to develop space for over 11,000 new affordable student beds.⁶⁸

Office of Governor Gavin Newsom, California Tackles Roadblocks to Housing Construction. September 2023.

Cal Matters, Legislative fix would save student housing at some California community colleges. September 2023.

While Melbourne comprises 36% of Australia’s national PBSA stock, industry and institutional partnerships are expected to develop more beds for students in New South Wales and Queensland.⁶⁹ Sydney is expected to account for nearly 50% of new room supply by 2026.

Property Council of Australia, Supply of student accommodation not keeping up with demand. August 2023.

Over 76,500 students in Australia are living in some 200 purpose-built student accommodation developments…. That is tens of thousands of students who are not competing with renters in the private market, underscoring the significant role PBSA has to play in easing the crisis.

— Adina Cirson, Acting Executive Director, Student Accommodation Council⁷⁰

Property Council of Australia, Supply of student accommodation not keeping up with demand. August 2023.

Development of PBSAs has slowed in the UK.⁷¹ In fact, the deficit of student beds in the UK is expected to reach 620,000 by 2026, up from just 5,000 in 2018.⁷² To address the UK’s need for more affordable student accommodations, a report by HEPI and UNIPOL recommends more joint government policy between the Department for Levelling Up, Housing & Communities and the Department for Education in order to stimulate and coordinate action between educational institutions, developers, sector bodies, and local authorities.⁷³

CBRE, Market Outlook 2023.

PBSA News, New data from StuRents shows PBSA supply/demand imbalance to worsen. August 2023.

HEPI, Student accommodation costs across 10 cities in the UK. October 2023.

Upcoming Elections Could Impact Student Sentiment

Several major destination markets will enter election cycles in 2024. Election outcomes can significantly swing public opinion about migrants and shift international students’ preferences on study location. As such, the messaging that comes out during the upcoming campaigns could create wide-ranging changes across the sector.

Americans head to the ballot box on November 5 to elect their next president. As of the time of writing, President Joe Biden faces little opposition in his bid for the Democratic nomination,⁷⁴ while former President Donald Trump is the favourite to win the Republican nomination.⁷⁵ A re-match of the 2020 presidential election would set the stage for a vitriolic campaign season throughout 2024.

Reuters, Who are the Democrats running for president in 2024? October 2023.

Politico, The 2024 GOP field: How they win, how they lose. October 2023.

Polls indicate that a hypothetical Biden-Trump race would go down to the wire, though it’s very early in the cycle.⁷⁶ Still, a Trump win could prove detrimental for the US’s international education sector.

FiveThirtyEight, Latest Polls. October 2023.

International student applications to the US fell from 856,000 in 2015 to 488,000 in 2019, which experts attributed in part to the Trump administration’s rhetoric and policies raising safety concerns for students.⁷⁷ Indeed, in 2020, 59% of students surveyed identified safety among their greatest worries about studying in the US. This dropped to 52% in 2023.⁷⁸

The Conversation, US colleges report a 43% decline in new international student enrollment, and not just because of the pandemic. November 2020. It’s worth noting that this decline began under the Obama administration after Brazil and Saudi Arabia curtailed popular scholarship programs before accelerating during the Trump administration. Also, while this decline continued into 2021 with only 446,000 applications, this was likely a result of the ongoing COVID-19 recovery, particularly given the massive 42% year-over-year growth in 2022.

QS, The recruitment edge: North America. September 2023.

Similar messaging throughout the 2024 election cycle could very well undo the application rebound of 2022 and suppress student inflows leading into 2025.

United Kingdom, Canada Could Also Enter Election Season

While neither the United Kingdom nor Canada needs to see an election until 2025, both countries could head to one sooner.

The United Kingdom in particular looks bound for an early election. While the next election isn’t due until January 2025, recent research shows that 73% of voters believe it should happen by May 2024.⁷⁹

Huffington Post, Three-Quarters Of British Voters Want A General Election By Next Spring. October 2023.

Polls indicate that, once the ballot boxes do open, the Labour Party will see a decisive victory over the incumbent Conservative Party.⁸⁰ As the Labour Party has been significantly ahead in the polls over the past 12 months, we anticipate that they’ll use broad-based, centric messaging once the campaign begins in earnest so as to maintain their polling advantage.

Sky News, When could the next general election be? The factors Rishi Sunak will be weighing up. October 2023.

For Labour, the main risk of announcing detailed policies might be, ‘We go down in the polls rather than up in the polls.’ If I were a betting man, I would bet on there being no real substantial changes to the student migration rules, even with a government change.

— Nick Hillman, ApplyBoard UK Advisory Board Member

Canada does not have to elect its next federal government until October 2025, and with projections showing the federal Conservative Party poised to capture enough seats to win a majority government as of October 2023,⁸¹ odds remain low that either the governing Liberal Party or opposition New Democratic Party will trigger an election in 2024.

CTV, Conservatives would likely win a majority if election held today: Nanos. October 2023.

However, if campaign rhetoric heats up in the back half of 2024, expect the housing shortages and cost-of-living crisis to be the largest wedge issues for Canadians. Stakeholders of Canada’s international education sector will need to align against any anti-immigration messaging that those issues could generate.

The Policies to Keep an Eye on in 2024

Of course, the impact of elections goes well beyond campaign messaging to the policies new (and veteran) governments put in place. These policies can have a global impact on the international education sector.

In May 2023, the UK government announced that it would begin to limit the ability of international students to bring dependents into the country with them.⁸² Application volumes indicate that interest in the UK market was already softening when this policy change was announced. And many of the UK’s largest student populations have high dependent-to-main-applicant ratios, including Indian, Nigerian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi students.⁸³ As a result, this new policy has the potential to push a large number of students toward other destination countries.

UK Parliament, Immigration update: Statement made on 23 May 2023. May 2023.

For a full breakdown on the impact of the UK’s dependent policy change on students, read our ApplyInsights article here.

I think there would have been better ways to solve [the pressure on public services caused by large dependent inflows]. For example, universities didn’t always know which of their arriving students were going to be bringing dependents with them. Universities having that information passed onto them from the migration authorities would have allowed universities to have conversations with their local primary schools and other public services, and perhaps to put more support in place.

— Nick Hillman, ApplyBoard UK Advisory Board Member

Canada is adopting a “recognized institution” framework for fall 2024, allowing institutions that meet certain criteria to receive prioritized study permit processing.⁸⁴ Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) hopes this will better protect both students and institutions against fraud. But any two-tiered system has the potential to create bias, leading to increased demand for institutions that meet the framework’s criteria and decreased demand for institutions that don’t. The framework will need to be closely monitored to ensure that it avoids further centralizing inflows, in turn adding more housing pressure to those locations.

IRCC, Changes to International Student Program aim to protect students. October 2023.

Also, Canadian institutions will need to confirm letters of acceptance (LOAs) directly with IRCC starting December 1, 2023. This policy shift aims to help protect students against fraud. It may also lead to longer processing wait times, which would be unattractive to students. Surveys show that over 30% of prospective students interested in a North American education expect to receive notification of the outcome of their application within three days.⁸⁵ ApplyBoard’s internal data reflects this, with a significant decline in enrollment rates the longer an applicant waits for their LOA.⁸⁶ If this new requirement leads to slower processing times, other destination countries could become more attractive study options.

QS, The recruitment edge: North America. September 2023.

For a full breakdown on the relationship between enrollment rates and LOA wait times, read our ApplyInsights article here.

The Student Populations That Are Helping Diversify English-Speaking Destinations

Uncertain geopolitical outcomes mean destination markets must rely on diversification to ensure the long-term health of their international ed sector. Diversity of students protects institutions and governments across all levels against downturns, particularly during times of elevated geopolitical tension—such as the current Canadian-Indian dispute leading to frozen visa services,⁸⁷ or the Trump Administration’s travel ban hurting the ability of institutions to attract international students.⁸⁸

CBC, India restarting some visa services for Canadians. October 2023.

American Council on Education, ACE, higher education groups say the Trump Administration’s third travel ban threatens colleges’ ability to attract international students, scholars. March 2018.

Diversity is also a win for students themselves. It ensures students receive a higher-quality experience and education, as new voices lead to new ideas. In fact, surveys have found that diversity of the student body and diversity of faculty and staff are important to over 80% of students.⁸⁹

Inside Higher Ed, Survey: Students Want Colleges to Be Diverse. September 2022.

Since well before the pandemic, rapid growth of the Indian international student population has been a leading story within the sector. Full-year 2023 should yet again set records for all four destination markets. Alongside this top-line growth, here are some student populations driving diversity in at least one major destination market.

Nigeria Poised as World’s Next Major Student Population

If any country will rival India’s momentum over the coming decade, it will be Nigeria. The Nigerian population hit 217 million in 2022 and is projected to surpass 375 million by 2050, becoming the world’s third-largest population. Nearly 60% of Nigerians are under 24 years old.⁹⁰ And the country’s GDP per capita is forecasted to increase 55% by 2028.⁹¹

International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database October 2023 Edition.

United Nations, World Population Prospects 2022.

The UK and Canada have already experienced an influx of Nigerian students since the pandemic. The UK issued nearly 59,000 sponsored study visas to Nigerian nationals in 2022, an increase of 139% over 2021. Similarly, Canada issued nearly twice as many study permits to Nigerians in 2022 as in the previous year.⁹²

Canada issued 12,000 study permits to Nigerian students in 2022 compared to 6,200 in 2021.

But momentum into 2024 differs for the two destinations. From January to June 2023, the UK granted about the same number of sponsored study visas to Nigerian students as it did during that period in 2022, while processing 8% fewer applications. This indicates softened Nigerian interest for the UK. Changes to the UK’s dependency policy may be the culprit, as discussed earlier in this report.Canada, meanwhile, already issued 143% more student visas through September 2023 compared to full-year 2022.

We project over 35,000 Nigerian nationals will be issued a Canadian student visa in 2023.

Nigeria is an opportunity for both the US and Australia to improve the diversity of their international ed sectors. The US granted 7,500 Nigerian nationals a student visa in 2022. Although this represented 20% growth over 2021, it fell well below the gains seen in Canada and the UK. A renewed focus on Nigerian recruitment could notably boost inflows, particularly if the UK’s stalled momentum continues throughout 2024.

Australia, meanwhile, lags significantly behind the other three destinations. Australia granted only 1,200 student visas to Nigerian students in 2022, and 2023 projects about the same. Indeed, Australia could significantly boost its student recruitment from Africa as a whole. A Navitas report found that Australia accounts for only 1.5% of African student inflows, but roughly 8.5% of the global student population.⁹³ If Australia were to grow its number of African students to match its global inflow percentage, it would welcome an additional 100,000 students by 2030.

ICEF, Modelling future international student flows for Australia. October 2023.

Crashing Naira Creating Barrier for Nigerian Students

While there is much to be optimistic about regarding Nigeria’s future in the international education sector, the country has a continuing challenge with maintaining the value of its national currency.⁹⁴

ICEF, Nigerian economy shows its strength but the national currency is struggling again this year. September 2023.

The instability of the naira adds substantial affordability challenges for Nigerian students, as a wider exchange rate gap means a higher cost to fund their education. The naira began crashing in June 2023, which could lead to some Nigerian students deferring their 2024 studies.

Filipino Students Heavily Bolster Vocational Programs

In 2019, the Philippines fell outside of Canada’s top 10 student populations by study permits issued. Just a few years later, the Philippines landed in Canada’s top 3. The 22,000 Filipino students issued a Canadian study permit in 2022 represented 83% growth over 2021 and an almost 360% increase over 2019.

Expect this trend to continue into 2024. Our projections show that nearly 30,000 Filipino students will be issued a study permit by the end of this year.

Did you Know? Filipinos are one of the world’s most mature student populations. On the ApplyBoard platform, the average age of Filipino applicants to Canada was 31 in 2022.

Vocational institutions are the biggest benefactor of Filipino student interest. Study permits issued to Filipino students for Canadian colleges have grown by more than 72% every year, outside of the pandemic, since 2017. Colleges have also accounted for over 85% of all Filipino student visas issued for post-secondary studies in Canada since 2019.

The story is similar in Australia. In 2023, nearly 13,000 Filipino students were granted an Australian student visa through September, already 36% higher than full-year 2022 and nearly double the full-year total from 2019. Vocational education training (VET) accounted for over 80% of visas granted in 2022 and 2023. With Australia’s international ed sector fully recovered from the two-year border closure, expect tighter competition between Australia and Canada for Filipino students into 2024 and beyond.

As strong postgraduate destinations, the US and UK unsurprisingly trail in Filipino recruitment.⁹⁵ They issued, respectively, just 1,200 and 500 student visas to Filipino nationals in 2022. For institutions in either destination market looking to create more vocational or job-oriented programs, strategic recruitment of Filipino students would be a strong starting point.

For a full breakdown of postgraduate and undergraduate enrollment trends, read our ApplyInsights article here.

English Language Programs Bring Latin American Students to Australia

At the beginning of 2022, Australia launched the Study Australia Experience platform, which targets student recruitment in Latin America (LATAM) by translating important information into Spanish and Portuguese.⁹⁶ This initiative appears to be paying dividends.

Mirage News, Study Australia Experience – LATAM education project update. April 2022.

Australia granted over 16,000 student visas to Colombian nationals in 2022, more than double the pre-pandemic high. And that momentum carried into 2023, with over 15,000 Colombian students granted a student visa through September. 95% of these visas were for Australia’s English Language Intensive Courses for Overseas Students (ELICOS) sector.

Argentinian, Brazilian, Chilean, and Peruvian students have also pursued an Australian education at unprecedented levels.

While this success cannot be solely attributed to the Study Australia Experience platform, the launch of this innovative project nevertheless demonstrates the importance of strategic and cohesive recruitment strategies. English proficiency has been on the rise in LATAM over the past decade, but workplaces have driven this growth rather than regional schools—in fact, the region had the world’s largest age-related proficiency gap in 2022, with adults aged 18 to 20 falling in the “very low” proficiency range.⁹⁷ Australia’s platform helps identify and solve a key barrier to entry for LATAM students, and thus represents a replicative model for other destination markets for how to strategically diversify their student populations.

Education First, English Proficiency Index, 2022.

Stay Tuned

In this report, we’ve touched on a wide range of factors that have impacted international education trends and which will continue to influence the sector in the coming years. But this report is not intended to be exhaustive. Many of the trends we’ve discussed are more complex than we’ve outlined here. And others may prove more profound than anyone realizes, particularly as destination markets enact new policies to reflect their shifting mindsets.

Competition to attract students will remain fierce in 2024. The destination countries that build and reinforce cross-sector bridges will be the ones that can offer students the highest quality of education and experience. And developing in-demand student skills is critically needed so that industries can replace retiring workers over the coming decades.

At ApplyBoard, we’ll continue to provide key data insights and forecasts across markets on a regular basis. Over the coming weeks and months, we’ll be releasing detailed articles and analyses that expand on some of the topics discussed in this report.