Throughout much of 2023 and 2024, stories about the international education sector in the UK centred around softened international student demand. This falling demand was in part due to a host of new policies, including restrictions on student dependants and increased international student fees, as well as unwelcoming messaging from the previous Sunak government and uncertainty surrounding the Graduate Route.
However, this March, we highlighted that the tide was likely turning. We noted that the number of student visa applications from main applicants was up 9% in Q4 2024 over Q4 2023, a potential signal of renewed student confidence.
The latest UK study visa application data, released in late May, confirms what we anticipated. Demand from main applicants stabilized in Q1 2025, growing by 32% over Q1 2024 levels and nearly returning to levels set in 2022.1 Read more to learn where this demand has come from, and how the government’s recently released white paper on immigration may impact the sector’s ongoing sustainability.
Key Insights at a Glance
- About 47,000 international students submitted a main applicant UK study visa application in Q1 2025.
- India accounted for over 18,000 main applicant study visa submissions in Q1 2025, representing a 29% increase from the same period last year.
- Of the 22 countries with 100 or more main applicants, 14 saw year-over-year applicant growth in Q1 2025.
- The number of visa issuances to Ghanaian students nearly doubled in Q1 2025 compared to Q1 2024, with grant rates improving by 12 percentage points.
UK Study Visa Applications and Issuances Up For Main Applicants in Q1 2025
As we noted in March 2025, full-year data showed that demand for UK study visas peaked in 2022. That trend holds true even when looking at just Q1 figures: in the first quarter of 2022 alone, more than 48,000 international students submitted a main applicant study visa application.
Demand declined over the next two Q1 periods, but 2025 has reversed that slide:
Nearly 47,000 main applicants submitted a UK study visa application in Q1 2025. This represents a 32% increase over Q1 2024. These gains build on the year-over-year growth seen in Q4 2024, suggesting that the UK international education sector is experiencing a broader rebound and stabilization, rather than a one-off peak in Q4.
Still, Q1 has historically made up just 8% to 10% of total annual applications from primary applicants.2 With the bulk of applications and issuances typically occurring in Q3, the sector still has work to do to sustain renewed student confidence. Attention is especially important around addressing concerns and dispelling misconceptions stemming from the 2025 Immigration White Paper—a topic we’ll explore further below.
As with applications, main applicant student visa issuances likewise rose in Q1 2025:
Over 48,000 international students were issued a study visa in Q1 2025, representing a growth of 27% over Q1 2024. The issuance rate in both of these quarters was 88%,3 meaning the increased number of issued visas reflects stronger demand rather than changes in approval rates.
Our team has also been closely tracking the number of withdrawn student visa applications. It’s a figure that is traditionally low in the first quarter: Between 2019 and 2023, total withdrawals in the first quarter ranged from just 118 to 310. That changed in 2024, when application withdrawals surged to 3,200. In Q1 2025, withdrawals dropped to 2,500, a promising 22% decrease from last year. However, that total remains more than 700% higher than it was in Q1 2023.
While seeing fewer application withdrawals year-over-year is encouraging, the elevated withdrawal rate compared to earlier years suggests lingering uncertainty among applicants. Institutions may need to adjust their recruitment messaging to proactively address policy concerns, with a particular focus on reinforcing the stability of the Graduate Route and the UK’s long-term commitment to genuine students.
Where Did Demand Stabilize in Q1 2025?
A closer look at what made Q1 2025 a strong quarter reveals that the uptick in study visa applications wasn’t limited to a handful of markets. Instead, demand stabilized across a broad range of source countries. Of the 22 countries with 100 or more main applicants, 14 saw year-over-year growth—an encouraging sign that renewed student interest in the UK is present across multiple regions.
India accounted for over 18,000 main applicant study visa submissions in Q1 2025, marking a 29% increase from the same period last year and making it the UK’s top source market that quarter. This recovery is particularly promising given that Indian student demand had softened across all four major English-speaking destinations in the latter half of 2023 and throughout 2024.
This momentum may be bolstered by recent developments in the UK–India relationship. In May, the UK and India signed a long-anticipated Free Trade Agreement that, while not directly altering student visa policy, introduced mutual recognition of academic qualifications and greater clarity around post-study employment pathways.4 These developments could reinforce the UK’s appeal among Indian students, particularly as long-term career prospects become an increasingly important part of the study abroad decision-making process.
Elsewhere, the 64% jump in Nigerian applications marks an encouraging recovery, given that Nigerian students were arguably the most affected by the UK’s dependant visa restrictions. However, Nigeria was among several countries—along with Pakistan and Sri Lanka, two other drivers of sustained demand this past quarter—where nationals may face increased scrutiny due to past asylum claim rates.5 This added layer of caution from UK authorities could temper future demand from these markets, especially if students perceive a higher risk of visa refusal or changing entry conditions despite their qualifications.
What Student Populations Drove the Upward Visa Issuance Trend in Q1 2025?
While application growth was widespread in Q1 2025, issuance trends offer additional insight into which student populations are successfully converting interest into study visas. These trends help us understand short-term momentum and assess key markets’ longer-term enrolment potential. Identifying these trends now is critical for institutions shaping sustainable recruitment strategies for the rest of the decade.
The 19,300 Indian students issued a main applicant study visa in Q1 2025 represented a 31% increase over Q1 2024. Their grant rate also rose to 96%, an increase of five percentage points which is especially significant given the scale of the incoming Indian student population.
Several emerging markets also demonstrated notable growth in UK study visa issuances this past quarter. The number of visas issued to main applicants from Nigeria increased by 84% compared to Q1 2024, with the grant rate rising by seven percentage points to 96%. Similarly, Sri Lanka and Ghana saw significant increases in visa issuances, with grant rates improving to 91% and 88%, respectively. These trends may reflect successful adjustments to new UK visa requirements and effective outreach efforts by institutions in these countries.
Conversely, main applicants from Pakistan experienced a 7% decline in student visa issuances. Their 74% grant rate represents a year-over-year drop of eight percentage points. Nepalese and Bangladeshi main applicants also saw grant rates decline in Q1 2025—down 14 and 15 percentage points respectively—though issuances doubled for both student populations. Working with ApplyBoard can help institutions reach genuine students and thereby improve conversion rates in these markets, as ApplyBoard’s AI-Powered Program Matching and Application Pre-Screening tools, and our careful Recruitment Partner Training and Vetting result in most ApplyBoard students submitting stronger visa applications.
Our commitment to student quality filters out about 50% of applications, meaning only high-potential candidates are forwarded to our partner institutions. This allows your staff to focus on supporting the students who are best matched to your courses.
How Will the UK’s 2025 Immigration White Paper Impact International Education?
The UK’s 2025 Immigration White Paper introduces significant reforms aimed at reducing net migration and tightening immigration controls. Ultimately, student success is at the heart of everything ApplyBoard does, and so we welcome the White Paper’s proposals to raise the enrolment and completion thresholds. ApplyBoard stands ready to support our institutional partners in this endeavour.
A notable change outlined by the 2025 White Paper is the introduction of a Red-Amber-Green system to publicly categorize universities based on compliance with sponsor license requirements.6 Institutions with major breaches will be marked as Red, potentially affecting their ability to recruit international students. ApplyBoard’s ecosystem and technology stack are uniquely positioned to assist universities in adapting to this system by providing robust compliance tracking and reporting tools.
Furthermore, the White Paper mandates the adoption of the Agent Quality Framework (AQF) for institutions using recruitment agents. ApplyBoard is an outspoken champion of the AQF, participating in its steering group and integrating sector-leading tech solutions like TrainHub with the British Council’s Agent Certification. These initiatives enhance transparency and integrity in agent management.
For more information about how ApplyBoard continues to spearhead quality agent frameworks, check out our Strengthening the Sector series.
One area of concern within the White Paper is the proposed reduction of the Graduate Route’s duration from two years to 18 months. This change could impact the UK’s competitiveness in attracting international students, as post-study work opportunities are a significant factor in students’ decision-making processes. ApplyBoard will continue to advocate for the substantial economic and social contributions that international students bring to their campuses and communities.
Sustaining Momentum in the UK’s International Student Recovery
Strong Q1 2025 results are a welcome sign for the UK’s international education sector, especially as they build on the encouraging Q4 2024. Together, these quarters point to a potential turning point in student sentiment, possibly signalling a broader recovery in demand if institutions and the wider international education community remain aligned.
However, that stability is not guaranteed. With the release of the 2025 Immigration White Paper, institutions must proactively clarify recent policy changes and dispel myths that may deter prospective students. While ApplyBoard is disappointed by the proposed reduction in the Graduate Route’s duration, it’s important to emphasize that this post-study work pathway remains accessible for all eligible students and is a key differentiator for the UK in an increasingly competitive global landscape.
ApplyBoard is proud to partner with UK institutions to diversify their enrolment pipelines and strengthen their global recruitment strategies. Our international network, robust platform, and data-informed approach can help institutions access new markets, support compliance obligations, and ensure students are genuine, academically prepared, and committed to completing their studies.
Interested in learning how ApplyBoard can help you achieve your recruitment goals? Contact our partner relations team today to explore tailored strategies for your institution.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. All data courtesy of the UK Home Office, unless otherwise stated.
2. 2020 was an exception to this trend. The pandemic impacted global student mobility during the middle of the year, resulting in Q1 representing 15% of applications from main applicants that year.
3. Issuance rate calculated by dividing the number of issued visas by the combined number of issued and refused visas. In other words, we’ve removed the number of lapsed or withdrawn visas from the issuance rate.
4. The PIE, Breaking: What does an India-UK trade deal mean for international students? May 2025.
5. The PIE, Rumoured UK visa crackdown to target Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka. May 2025.
6. Sponsor license requirements refer to the UK Home Office’s rules that educational institutions must follow in order to enrol international students.
