Since Q4 2024, we’ve been tracking rebounding international student demand for a UK-based education, when main-applicant applications were up 9% compared to Q4 2023. That trend continued into Q1 2025, when main applicant demand was up 32% year-over-year.
Now, new Q2 2025 data shows this stabilization has continued for the third straight reporting period. Nearly 63,000 main applicants applied for a UK study visa in Q2 2025, a 16% increase over Q2 2024.1
The UK government’s 2025 White Paper on immigration builds on an already stringent student visa policy environment by setting out an intention to increase Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) thresholds by 5% across the board. This means universities would need to keep refusal rates below 5% (alongside other BCA thresholds) or else face sanctions. Though time scales are yet to be officially confirmed, we expect the new 90% CAS to enrolment and 95% visa success metrics to take effect from the January 2026 intake and the 90% course completion rate to take effect from early 2027. As a direct result, some institutions have already reduced or suspended recruitment strategies in so-called ‘high-risk’ countries.
Against this backdrop, understanding where demand is growing and which student populations are achieving strong grant rates has never been more important. Read on to explore the latest trends in student demand, visa outcomes, and what they mean for institutions navigating the new compliance landscape.
Key Insights at a Glance
- 56,000 international students were issued a main applicant study visa in Q2 2025, representing a growth of 24% over Q2 2024.
- The refusal rate for main applicants in Q2 2025 was 9%.2 While in line with Q4 2024 and Q1 2025—periods when demand stabilized—it was three times higher than the same quarter the previous year.
- 15 of the UK’s 20 largest student populations saw grant rates exceeding 95% in Q2 2025.
UK Study Visa Applications and Issuances Grew For Main Applicants in Q2 2025
Since the pandemic, Q2 has accounted for about 11% of the full-year application total for UK student visas from main applicants. By contrast, Q3 of any given year is typically the UK’s peak window for study visas, with roughly two-thirds of applications being received and processed in this period.
Although a modest portion of the whole, Q1 and Q2 patterns have often been leading indicators of Q3 results. This means changes in Q1 and Q2 often offer early reads on where institutions can focus or refine their recruitment strategies. With that in mind, let’s take a look at how demand trended in Q2 2025:
Main applicant study visa demand rose 16% in Q2 2025 compared to the same quarter in 2024, with nearly 63,000 students applying to study in the UK. When combined with the gains seen in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, this renewed demand creates a complex outlook, as the period of volatility that began in mid-2023 has the potential to continue as institutions react to the new BCA constraints.
As with applications, student visa issuances also rose in Q2 2025:
Over 56,000 international students were issued a main applicant study visa in Q2 2025, 24% more than in Q2 2024. However, the 5,300 refusals in Q2 2025 led to a refusal rate three times higher than the same period the previous year. In fact, the number of refusals in Q2 2025 surpassed the total number of refusals in 2021 to 2024 combined (Q2 only).
While institutions have always had to balance recruitment goals with compliance, the new BCA framework significantly raises the stakes. The past three quarters have each had an overall refusal rate of at least 9%, underscoring the degree of pressure institutions now face as they navigate tighter enrolment thresholds and shifting market dynamics. Recruitment teams will have to weigh the strategic need to diversify their campuses—a key way to reduce reliance on any single market and protect against geopolitical shifts—against the risk that challenges with any particular market could negatively impact overall compliance standing under these stricter rules.
Grant Rates for the 20 Largest Student Populations in the UK in Q2 2025
The good news for UK institutions is that 15 of the UK’s 20 largest student populations achieved grant rates exceeding the 95% BCA threshold last quarter:
Over 15,000 Indian students were issued a main applicant study visa in Q2 2025. This was nearly twice as many as the next largest student population and represented a growth of 44% over Q2 2024. This growth is an encouraging signal of renewed Indian interest after all four major English-speaking destinations experienced demand declines in 2024. Critically, India’s 96% grant rate positions Indian students as a reliable foundation for institutions seeking both enrolment growth and compliance under the stricter BCA standards.
Beyond India, demand also rose across South Asia in Q2 2025. Nepal led the way, with nearly four times as many main applicant study visas as in Q2 2024, and the 94% grant rate for Nepalese students sat within a percentage point of the new BCA threshold. However, while demand from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka also grew (up 110%, 68%, and 7%, respectively), students from each country saw grant rates fall well below compliance levels after sharp declines compared to Q2 2024. For institutions, South Asia remains indispensable to sustaining campus diversity, but success will hinge on working with trusted partners and ensuring that rising demand translates into genuine, visa-ready students.
The UK’s rebound in Q2 2025 was global in scope, with strong demand emerging well beyond South Asia. Nigeria’s recovery was particularly striking as study visa issuances rose 149% year-over-year at a 96% grant rate. This turnaround is especially significant given Nigeria was among the hardest hit by the Sunak government’s restrictions on student dependents and was facing severe economic challenges at the start of the year. Beyond Nigeria, several markets also combined rising demand with compliance-friendly grant rates. Saudi Arabia (+43% vs. Q2 2024, 97% grant rate), the United States (+20%, 100%), and France (+27%, 99%) each contributed to a broader pattern of stability, underscoring that the UK’s recovery is fuelled by a wide base of student populations across the world.
Which Emerging Markets Had Grant Rates above 95% in H1 2025?
UK institutions do not have to turn to only their largest student populations to remain compliant with the BCA’s tighter grant rate expectations. Several emerging student populations met or exceeded a 95% grant rate in the first half of 2025, offering lower-risk growth opportunities that can complement more volatile recruitment channels.
The table below focuses on H1 (January to June) rather than Q2 alone to provide a wider scope given the smaller volume of study visas issued across emerging student populations:3
Europe stands out as one of those strategic opportunities. Five emerging European student populations—Norway, Greece, Cyprus, Italy, and Switzerland—had grant rates of 99% or higher in H1 2025. While European demand is a long way from recovering from the impacts of Brexit, the region’s consistently strong visa outcomes suggest it may play a stabilizing role in institutional portfolios as BCA scrutiny intensifies.
Southeast Asia also shows promise for institutions aiming to increase diversity on campuses. Singapore led the region with a 100% grant rate in H1 2025, while Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar (Burma), and the Philippines each had grant rates of at least 95%. However, it’s worth noting that only the latter two countries avoided a demand drop compared to H1 2024. Nevertheless, the consistently strong visa outcomes makes this region of the world a compelling foundation for longer-term recruitment strategies that prioritise both student quality and regional diversity.
Additionally, several emerging Latin American (LATAM) countries showed both strong demand growth and visa outcomes. Main applicant study visas issued to students from Mexico, Peru, and Chile grew by 19%, 31%, and 10%, respectively, all with grant rates of 95% or higher. All told, these patterns suggest that institutional resilience under the BCA may come not from shifting focus to a single new region, but rather by cultivating a more distributed set of reliable corridors across the globe.
How ApplyBoard Can Help Your Institution Maintain Campus Diversity
Tighter oversight in the UK is reshaping how institutions think about international enrolment. With refusal thresholds narrowing and new accountability frameworks on the horizon, the risk is that universities retreat toward a handful of “safe” markets. While this might safeguard compliance metrics in the short term, it risks undermining campus diversity and leaving institutions exposed to geopolitical or economic shocks in the long term.
ApplyBoard is uniquely positioned to help institutions strike a better balance. Our platform connects partners to a wide range of source markets, supported by robust data and compliance-focused tools that strengthen student quality. From leveraging TrainHub to elevate agent performance to surfacing insights on which markets combine demand with high grant rates, we equip recruitment teams to diversify confidently while maintaining compliance standards.
By embedding these supports into every stage of the student journey, we ensure that rising demand from around the world translates into genuine, well-prepared students who can thrive and complete their programs. For institutions, this means not having to choose between meeting BCA requirements and sustaining the diversity that defines the UK’s global education brand.
Interested in learning how ApplyBoard can help your institution maintain compliance while strengthening campus diversity? Reach out to your Account Director or connect with our UK commercial partnerships team to discuss tailored strategies for your recruitment goals.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. All data courtesy of the UK Home Office, unless otherwise stated.
2. The refusal rate was the same if dependent applicants were included. The refusal rate was calculated by omitting applications that were withdrawn or lapsed, and then dividing the number of visa refusals by the sum of visas issued and refused.
3. Emerging markets defined here as student populations granted between 100 and 500 main applicant study visas during H1 2025.
