For more than two years, each new release of Canada’s study permit data has told a similar story of shrinking new approvals and even softer student demand. Between January 1 and May 31, 2026, that pattern held on the surface, as Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) approved just under 33,800 new student visas1 across all study levels, a 13% drop from the same period in 2025.2
Looking past the topline figure, however, reveals reasons for optimism. Approval rates ran higher every month in 2026 than they did in 2025, and approvals climbed year-over-year in the months of April and May. Together, these trends suggest the sector may be stabilizing.
Overall demand is still down, and the past two years have been difficult for institutions and students alike. But for a sector that has grown used to reading each new data release as another setback, a few consecutive months moving in a positive direction are worth paying attention to. Below, we look more closely at what’s driving these trends and what they could mean for Canada’s education sector going forward.
Key Insights at a Glance
- The average visa approval rate for new study permits rose to 47% over the January to May period in 2026. It was only 36% during the same months in 2025.
- IRCC approved more new study permits in both April and May 2026 than in 2025.
- Fewer students are choosing to withdraw their applications, suggesting renewed student confidence in Canada as a destination choice.
- Spain, Germany, and Ghana were among the fastest-growing international student populations during the first five months of 2026.
Note: this article features data for all Canadian study levels, including K-12. For post-secondary trends only, check out our analysis published last month.
New Monthly Study Permit Approval Rates Surpass 2025 Levels
Over the months of January to May, the study permit approval rate for new study permit applications rose to 47% this year.3 That’s 11 percentage points higher than the average approval rate over the same time in 2025. In fact, the approval rate has risen steadily each month since March:
Month by month, approval rates climbed from just under 38% in February to a recent high of 57% in May 2026. In fact, early 2026 approval rates hewed fairly close to 2024 levels. This trend is especially promising as the summer months of June through August have usually featured the strongest approval rates of a given year.4 If that seasonal pattern holds through 2026, approval rates could keep climbing into the summer, extending a run that would mark a real shift from the past two years. While that’s not enough on its own to call it a full sector turnaround, it should give students renewed confidence that their applications have a real chance of success.
Securing a study permit on one’s first attempt matters. When applying for a new Canadian post-secondary student visa in 2025, first-time applicants had an approval rate of 52%. This approval rate was 20 percentage points higher than applicants on their second attempt.
New Study Permit Approvals Rise Year-over-Year in April and May 2026
Study permit approval rates are a key factor when institutions are determining how many new international students to expect, but it’s also important to understand how many study permits are actually being processed and approved. While approval totals in January and February were significantly lower in 2026 than they were in 2025, by March 2026, that trend started to change:
In 2025 and through to February 2026, each individual month saw the total number of new approvals fall significantly year-over-year, with drops ranging from between 31% to 80%. So when new approvals in March 2026 were only down by 11% year-over-year, we were hopeful that marked improvement represented the first signal that the downward trend was leveling off.
Then April and May moved into outright positive territory. The total number of new approvals grew by 12% and 18%, respectively, year-over-year. These three consecutive months of stronger data offer practical advantages for the broader international education community. Institutions can project their upcoming seat counts with greater accuracy, and this stability gives students the necessary confidence to finalize their applications.
We’re currently projecting about 110,000 new study permits will be approved for the full-year, which would essentially be flat with 2025. However, if approval rates continue their stronger pace, reignited international student demand could very well lead to 2026 actually surpassing last year’s total.
Fewer Study Permit Withdrawals Processed in Early 2026
Withdrawn application trends also point to renewed student confidence about the Canadian international education sector.
From January through May 2026, withdrawals were down year-over-year as a proportion of total applications processed. Just under 2,500 new study permit applications were withdrawn in the first five months of 2026, compared to 4,800 over the same period in 2025:
The total number of withdrawals in 2026 so far is at a similar level to the early 2020s, but represents a much higher proportion of permits (3.4% of permits processed between January and May, versus just under 1%).
Still, it’s encouraging to see this proportion continue to trend downwards from the spike in 2024, which was just after the Canadian study permit caps were implemented. Lower withdrawal totals at this time of year suggest applicants have a higher level of certainty about their study plans, which is in turn an encouraging signal to institutions.
The Student Populations Shaping Canadian Institutions in Early 2026
When we look at which student populations are successfully applying to study in Canada, a few patterns emerge:
European student populations led much of the positive movement in early 2026. Students from Spain saw 1,200 approved study permits during the first five months, nearly double the total of the previous year. Approvals for students from Germany and France grew by 86% and 27% over this period. For both Spain and Germany, over 90% of those approvals were for grades 9 to 12
Outside Europe, about 1,700 South Korean and 1,100 American students had their study permit applications approved, representing growth rates of 40% and 29%, respectively. That global appeal extends to African countries as well. Approvals for Ghanaian applicants nearly doubled, while approvals for Nigerian students were up 5%.
These gains across mature and emerging student populations demonstrate that Canada retains strong global brand appeal among students seeking high-quality academic opportunities. When institutions equip those students with clear guidance on provincial attestation requirements and financial criteria—some of the most common reasons for student visa refusals—applicants build stronger applications that result in higher approval outcomes. Institutions that broaden these engagement efforts will help ensure that Canada continues to welcome talented students from all corners of the world.
Shaping a Path Forward with Data-Driven Insights
The data from early 2026 shows that thorough application preparation and clear guidance are driving encouraging outcomes across the sector. With approval rates climbing back to 47%, spring volumes turning positive year-over-year results, and fewer applicants withdrawing their files, the sector is experiencing clear signals of stabilization. Canadian academic institutions have an immediate opportunity to capture this momentum. By combining their team’s deep expertise with advanced tools that streamline administrative processes and document verification, institutions can connect effectively with this growing wave of confident, high-intent applicants.
Navigating provincial attestation limits means that converting allocated cap space into enrolled students is critical for an institution’s success. Partnering with ApplyBoard helps ensure those prospective students arrive on your campus. By combining program matching, rigorous pre-screening, and our vetted international student advisor network, ApplyBoard empowers students to submit stronger applications, ultimately improving their chances of approval. Connect with our Commercial Partnerships team to join our global network, or reach out to your current representative to discuss how we can refine your international student recruitment strategies.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Rather than student visas, Canada provides accepted international students with study permits, which allow those students to enrol in classes at Canadian institutions. When a student is accepted for a study permit, they are also usually provided with a visitor visa, which allows that student to enter Canada for their studies. In this article, we’ll use the terms interchangeably./p>
2. Unless noted otherwise, data is courtesy of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. Most recent government data cited in this article spans January to May 2026.
3. For these calculations, we’re including all new study permits (not including extensions) at all study levels. The approval rate is calculated by dividing the total number of approvals that month by the combined total of study permit approvals and refusals./p>
4. June, July, and August aren’t always Canada’s three strongest approval months of a given year, but the exception tends to be modest: even when one of the three falls outside the top three, it still typically lands in the top five. The window matters more for its consistency than for hitting the single highest mark every year.
