While 2025 was a year of stability for the UK’s international education sector at the macro level, our team flagged that demand actually declined in Q4 year-over-year. Sponsored study main applications fell by 14% in Q4 2025 over Q4 2024.1 And this drop only accelerated in 2026. The UK received 72,900 main applicant student visa applications between January and June 2026, down 30% compared to H1 2025.
These trends are indicative of how both international students and institutions are responding to the 2025 White Paper on Immigration. A shorter Graduate visa and mixed messaging about their welcomeness—at a time when ApplyBoard’s Pulse Surveys have found that a destination’s perceived welcomeness matters to students more than ever before—are leading students to reconsider where they want to study. Meanwhile, new Basic Compliance Assessment (BCA) thresholds have institutions reconsidering where they’re recruiting students from.
Below, we’re diving into the Home Office’s course level data to explore how the softened demand in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 impacted studies at the bachelor’s, master’s, and PhD levels.2 These periods are often leading indicators for the busiest season of the year (Q3), and understanding emerging trends can help proactive institutions better allocate their resources.
Key Insights at a Glance
- 16,600 international students applied for a bachelor’s level course in the UK in 2025/26 (Q4 + Q1).
- During this period, applications to master’s courses declined 22% year-over-year.
- PhD demand has arguably been unaffected by the 2025 White Paper on Immigration.
For brevity, we reference only the given years throughout the rest of this article. For example, the Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 period is referred to as 2025/26. All year references are for the Q4 of the first given year and Q1 of the second given year only.
Demand for Bachelor’s Studies Down 18%
In 2025/26, 16,600 international students applied for a bachelor’s level course in the UK:
Post-pandemic, demand for bachelor-level study peaked in 2021/22 with 25,200 applications. This was, however, likely an outlier caused by a double-cohort effect in which students who had delayed their studies during the pandemic were applying alongside students on a traditional track.
As such, application totals in 2022/23 and 2023/24 are a better representation of actual demand. So, in that sense, the 16,600 bachelor’s applications in 2025/26 was in line with that two-year baseline, even if applications also declined year-over-year by 18%. But given how much more the overall demand dropped in H1 2026 (-30% year-over-year) compared to just Q4 2025 (-14%), we expect the trendline to fall below the two-year baseline once study level specific Q2 results are released later this month.
Nearly 15,600 sponsored study visas were granted for students pursuing bachelor’s level courses in 2025/26, a year-over-year decline of 23%.
Pakistani Applicants Experienced the Steepest Drop for Visas Granted
By late 2025, several UK institutions had implemented recruitment restrictions on Pakistani and Bangladeshi students. It is not surprising, then, to see that both student populations had the steepest year-over-year decline for study visas granted at the bachelor’s level, down 68% and 28% respectively:
The number of study visas granted for the bachelor’s level declined among 9 of the study level’s top 10 student populations. At the top, nearly 3,400 Nepalese and 3,200 Indian students were granted a study visa for bachelor’s studies, a year-over-year drop of 24% and 21%, respectively.
Among the top 10 student populations, only students from the US were granted more visas in 2025/26 than in the previous year. American student outflows have increased significantly since the start of 2025, following the Trump administration’s historic defunding of research initiatives. Meanwhile, grants for Nigerian and Saudi Arabian students essentially held flat.
Interestingly, the five student populations rounding out the top 15—Kenya, Kuwait, Türkiye, Malaysia, and Ghana—all grew year-over-year. As a result, the latest cohort of undergraduate students in the UK will be proportionally more diverse.
Demand for Master’s Degrees Reaches 5-Year Low
Master’s courses may be the most popular UK study level among international students, but it also had the largest pullback of demand:
Over 51,800 international students applied for a master’s course in 2025/26. This was a decline of 22% over 2024/25, and set a new five-year low. We also expect to see that this fall accelerated once Q2 data is released.
About 43,100 sponsored study visas were granted for the master’s level in 2025/26, dropping by 33% year-over-year.
Number of Study Visas Granted Declined Significantly Across Most South Asian Student Populations
Only 2 of the top 15 master’s student populations grew between 2024/25 and 2025/26:
The 400 study visas granted to American students in 2025/26 was a year-over-year increase of 24%. Saudi Arabian students also grew by 3% over this period.
But the declines in visas granted to South Asian master’s students is the big story here. As at the bachelor’s level, Pakistani students saw the largest fall, down a staggering 73% year-over-year. Meanwhile, students from India (-27%), Nepal (22%), and Sri Lanka (-43%) all received significantly fewer visas as well.
These downward trends are likely reflective of institutions’ heightened scrutiny around Master of Research (MRes) applicants. MRes courses became a popular alternative for students with families following 2024’s increased restrictions on who could bring dependents with them. As a result, institutions have had to become more selective to ensure the course level is the right fit for its applicants.
Doctoral Demand on a Four-Year Slide
While the 2025 White Paper on Immigration continues to shift what the broader international education sector looks like in the UK, applicants at the PhD level were arguably undeterred by the White Paper’s recommendations. The downward trend in applications at this level has been relatively steady since 2021/22:
Nearly 2,600 prospective students applied for a UK-based PhD in 2025/26. This was 9% lower than in the previous year. However, in each of the past four years, demand has declined at a rate between 5% and 12%, resulting in a relatively consistent downward trendline.
Around 2,700 sponsored study visas were granted to students at the doctoral level in 2025/26, a year-over-year decline of 6%.
Nearly 1,000 Chinese applicants were granted a study visa for PhD courses in 2025/26. Though this is down by 3% year-over-year, their total was still nearly five times as high as the second-largest student population. The smaller figures among the remaining student populations means wider variance. Doctoral students from India, the US, Kuwait, and Italy all saw a higher number of visas granted in 2025/26 versus the previous year, while students from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Iran, Pakistan, and Indonesia saw declines.
Working With ApplyBoard to take Your Student Recruitment to the Next Level
The course level outcomes data currently available captures a transitional period across the UK’s education sector in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. We expect demand to soften further as the year progresses, as more recent monthly application data shows a year-over-year drop of 30% in the first half of 2026. That was more than double the 14% decline observed in Q4 2025. This steeper trajectory indicates that proactive institutions must adapt their strategies to build resilient recruitment corridors.
This will depend on targeted strategies. By leveraging forward-looking insights, institutions can strategically allocate resources toward growing student populations at each course level. When institutions dedicate time to understanding specific trends, they can provide the targeted support applicants need to better navigate the admissions process.
Continuous visibility into changing global preferences makes this level of support possible. The ApplyBoard platform provides UK academic institutions with the underlying search data required to identify these shifts as they happen. Connecting with our Commercial Partnerships Team to learn how your team can refine your approach, and help more international students begin their studies in the UK.
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FOOTNOTES:
1. All data courtesy of the UK Home Office. This article leverages two distinct data sets from the Home Office: monthly entry clearance visa applications, and sponsored study entry clearance visas by course level./p>
2. Latest available data for sponsored study entry clearance visas data is through March 2026. Monthly application data, which is available up to June, shows total applications only.
