Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) received about 38,000 new post-secondary study permit¹ applications in the first four months of 2026, roughly 40% fewer than in the same period of 2025.² For the students who did apply, the odds improved, as the visa approval rate over this time climbed to 36% from 26% a year earlier.

This combination suggests to institutions and the broader education sector that the pressure on new enrolments is coming from collapsed demand. However, the rising study permit approval rate is a real and positive signal for prospective students considering Canada. Put simply, in early 2026, Canada approved a higher share of a shrinking pool of applicants. The sections below look at what is driving these numbers and what they mean for student recruitment planning.³

Canadian Student Visa Approvals Stayed Low in Early 2026, Even as the Approval Rate Climbed

Study permit approval rates rose year-over-year by 10 percentage points during the January through April period of 2026. Every month from January through April 2026 had a higher approval rate than the same month in 2025, and the gap widened as the year went on, reaching 42% in April against 29% a year earlier.

Over two of the last three years, study permit approval rates improved through the spring and summer, and 2026’s upward trajectory suggests ongoing recovery rather than a settled approval rate for the year. However, the higher-volume summer months will be the real test of whether this pattern holds, and the climbing approval rate doesn’t tell the whole story:

Demand for a study permit softened considerably at the application stage. IRCC received about 38,000 new post-secondary applications during the first four months of 2026, down about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. The drop in new applications received is an early signal of student interest levels, and the single biggest driver of the lower approval count.

Extensions Still Account for Most Canadian Student Visa Approvals in Early 2026

Study permit extensions continued to make up the large majority of post-secondary approvals in early 2026. In the first four months of the year, extensions accounted for 77% of approvals, compared to 23% for new permits. That balance was similar to the same period in 2025, when extensions represented 79% of approvals. This marks a clear reversal from pre-cap trends, when new permits made up around 70% of approvals:

Extension applications are typically approved at rates above 90%. The current imbalance between study permit extensions and new issuances points to a sustainability issue in Canadian international education. A shrinking intake of first-year students breaks the traditional enrolment cycle, leaving institutions scrambling to project budgets, distribute resources, and secure viable funding for the future.

Canadian Student Visa Approval Rates Rose Across Every Program Level in Early 2026

Study permit approvals at every program level improved year-over-year in early 2026. University-level postgraduate programs recorded the highest January-to-April study permit approval rate at 49%, up from 39% in 2025. University-level undergraduate programs rose to 44% from 32%, college-level programs to 30% from 24%, and vocational programs to 13% from 8%. The gap between degree-level and shorter programs stayed wide.

These approval rates also shaped the mix of approvals in early 2026. Students entering college-level programs still held the largest share of study permit approvals at 43%, though that was down from 48% a year earlier:

Permits approved for university-level postgraduate students rose to 30% from 27%, and university-level undergraduate students captured 25% of approvals, up from 22%. Meanwhile, vocational students held 2% of all approvals.

Students entering postgraduate programs were the most likely to be approved, while capturing a growing proportion of all approved permits, which points to steady interest in graduate study even as overall application volumes fell. The tilt toward graduate study is the clearest compositional change observed compared to early 2025. Moreover, the stronger approval rates for university-level programs align with the well-documented link between study level and long-term labour-market outcomes.

What the Early Data Suggests for the Rest of 2026

The January-to-April window is a partial view, so it points to a direction only; that said, things are looking up. The approval rate for this period rose year-over-year for the first time since 2023. Overall study permit application volumes, however, continue to decline, and it won’t be until after the summer months, which usually see the highest share of new-permit processing, when we’ll be able to see if the approval rate recovery holds steady. For teams advising future students, however, the improving approval rate should provide more confidence compared to a year ago, as it’s become clear that Canada is currently facing a demand issue rather than a supply one.

How Institutions Can Respond With Data

As demand softens, institutions that use data to identify and support well-matched applicants can make the most of their provincial attestation letter capacity. On the student’s end, a good program fit and a clear academic plan carry real weight. When IRCC assesses a study permit application, it weighs whether the applicant is a genuine student with a well-supported study plan, so applicants who show a coherent progression from their past studies to their chosen program will start from a stronger position. Further, careful application support and early screening for program fit can help improve approval outcomes.

Canada also continues to need skilled talent in priority areas, including artificial intelligence. Institutions can support and fill these needs by how they weigh and present their programs in order to connect student interest with those priorities.

The opportunity for institutions is to turn these trends into a sharper and more focused student recruitment strategy. Join our global network today, or connect with your regional representative to learn more.

About the ApplyInsights Team

FOOTNOTES:

1. The terms student visa and study permit are generally used interchangeably for Canadian international students. Canada issues eligible students a study permit, which allows them to enrol at a Canadian institution, and usually a visitor visa to enter the country. This article uses the terms interchangeably.

2. All data is sourced from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) unless otherwise noted. Figures reflect IRCC operational data extracted July 17, 2026, and are subject to minor revision.

3. This analysis covers new study permits for post-secondary studies and does not include field of study. Approval rate is defined as approvals divided by approvals plus refusals.